Special Edition: Glenn Diesen on Trumpism, Ukraine, and the Hegemon's End
Jan 30, 2025
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Glenn Diesen, a professor at the University of South-Eastern Norway and associate editor at Russia in Global Affairs, dives into the shifting global power dynamics. He discusses the waning U.S. hegemony in light of the Ukraine war and the rise of Russia and China. Diesen critiques America's interventionist foreign policies and the flawed assumptions behind energy sanctions on Russia. He calls for a reevaluation of U.S. strategies towards a more multipolar world, emphasizing Europe's precarious position amid these transformations.
The ongoing Ukraine war signifies a power shift towards multipolarity, challenging the historical dominance of the United States in global affairs.
U.S. geopolitical strategies, rooted in historical theories, continue to influence contemporary conflicts as Europe grapples with NATO's expansion and rising tensions with Russia.
Europe's dependence on U.S. policies is eroding its autonomy, leading to a legitimacy crisis that demands a reconsideration of its strategic alliances and national interests.
Deep dives
The Shifting Global Landscape
The Ukraine war has catalyzed profound changes in global dynamics, marking a shift towards a multipolar world order. This conflict underscores the persistent struggle for defining security in international relations, primarily framed by the United States' hegemonic influence. The U.S. has historically pursued a model where its sole dominance is seen as necessary for global peace, viewing any challenge to its primacy as a direct threat. As the U.S. faces increasing competition from rising powers like China and Russia, there’s a growing discontent among nations unwilling to accept a unipolar system, pushing them towards alternative alliances and structures.
Historic Strategic Concepts and Modern Implications
The ideas of strategists like Mackinder and Spykman significantly influence U.S. geopolitical strategies, emphasizing the importance of dominating the Eurasian landmass. Mackinder's theory portrayed Eurasia as the centerpiece of global power, leading to aggressive policies aimed at preventing any single power from controlling it. Contemporary issues in Europe, particularly regarding NATO's eastward expansion and the prioritization of military alliances over diplomatic engagements, can be traced back to these strategies. These historical concepts, while rooted in the past, continue to manifest in current conflicts and tensions within Europe and its relationship with Russia.
America's Hegemonic Overreach
The U.S. strategy post-Cold War has increasingly leaned towards an expansionist approach to maintain its global hegemony, yet this strategy has proven unsustainable. The invasion of Iraq and its geopolitical ramifications illustrated a shift from an offshore balancing strategy to aggressive interventionism, risking the U.S. economy and legitimacy. As more nations challenge U.S. norms, particularly with the rise of China, the implications for American dominance become more apparent. The overall narrative that U.S. hegemony is benign has eroded significantly, potentially leading to a greater coalition of countries uniting against U.S. interests.
Europe's Vulnerability and Autonomy Crisis
Europe's dependence on American policies illustrates a critical loss of autonomy, leaving the continent strategically vulnerable amidst ongoing geopolitical conflicts. The narrative that positions Europe as a loyal ally of the U.S. has resulted in leaders sacrificing national interests for perceived security, which is increasingly questioned by citizens. This self-subordination has led to a legitimacy crisis for European governments as economic consequences of these decisions mount, demanding a reevaluation of ties with the U.S. The impending political instability within Europe—exacerbated by its entanglement in the Ukraine conflict—could generate a landscape ripe for significant change in leadership and policy direction.
Envisioning a New Order: The Role of Multipolarity
Embracing multipolarity could represent a significant shift in international relations, moving away from a hegemonic model to a more equitable distribution of power among nations. This transition would allow for greater cooperation and reduced hostilities as countries negotiate from positions of equal sovereignty rather than under U.S. domination. The U.S. must either adapt to this new reality by recognizing the need for collaborative frameworks or risk exacerbating global tensions and fostering a unified opposition against its interests. Acknowledging and facilitating this global transition could yield a more stable and prosperous future for all nations involved.
No European who saw it would have avoided a pang of dread, when a meme appeared online this week, in the wake of the DeepSeek AI phenomenon.
It pictured three dragons. One, ferocious, on its chest the logos of OpenAI, MetaAI, Gemini AI, and the US flag.
The other, just as ferocious: featured the Chinese flag, and the logo of DeepSeek.
The third, looking like the kid in primary school who eats the crayons, featured the EU logo, and the emblematic grafted-on plastic water bottle lid that has become totemic of the EU’s failure to do anything but regulate itself out of existence.
The message was clear. Europe is increasingly at a crossroads. Between the coming eastern powers, and the declining western powers. And if it isn’t at the table, it will be on the menu.
Which way, European man?
Glen Diesen is professor at the University of South-Eastern Norway.
He has a very popular Substack, and is a regular guest on a range of podcasts, including The Duran. We’re very glad to have him here today, to talk about Europe, Trumpism, the end of the Ukraine War, and beyond.
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