Richard Bush and Ryan Hass, Brookings Senior Fellows, discuss U.S.-Taiwan relations in the context of China's challenge. They explore Taiwan's upcoming presidential election, the potential for conflict with China, and the importance of not politicizing Taiwan. They argue that tensions can only be resolved with the assent of Taiwan's people.
Tensions between China and Taiwan can only be resolved with the assent of Taiwan's people.
The outcome of Taiwan's presidential election in 2024 will affect the level of Beijing's pressure on cross-Taiwan Strait relations.
Deep dives
The US official position on Taiwan and its allies' views
The US recognized the People's Republic of China (PRC) as the government of China in 1979 and ended diplomatic relations with Taiwan. The US acknowledges that Taiwan is part of China's sovereign territory. Key allies in Europe and Asia, like Japan, have similar positions, recognizing the PRC as the government of China but remaining ambiguous on the legal status of Taiwan.
Shifts in US policy and concerns about the erosion of discipline
US policy toward Taiwan has shifted in recent years, partly in response to China's increasing pressure on Taiwan. There are concerns about an erosion of discipline and precision in US policy towards Taiwan. The focus should be on preserving peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait, respecting Taiwan's agency in defining and pursuing its interests, and avoiding treating Taiwan as a strategic pawn in competition with China.
Taiwanese views on resolution options and the upcoming election
Polls indicate that the majority of Taiwanese identify as Taiwanese rather than Chinese, and most prefer maintaining the status quo. A small percentage supports immediate independence, while some advocate waiting and considering independence later. The vast majority of Taiwanese believe that if they declared independence, China would attack and that the US would likely not come to their aid. The upcoming presidential election in January 2024 will see the current vice president, who is seen as a firebrand pushing for independence, as the candidate of the Democratic People's Party. The outcome and implications will depend on Taiwan's voters and the constitutional thresholds for any changes in Taiwan's status.
Brookings Senior Fellows Richard Bush and Ryan Hass, co-authors with Bonnie Glaser of a new Brookings Press book on U.S.-Taiwan relations in the context of China’s challenge, argue that tensions between the PRC and Taiwan can only be resolved with the assent of Taiwan’s people. Taiwan’s presidential election result in 2024 will also affect how much pressure Beijing applies to cross-Taiwan Strait relations, they explain.