Volatility Views

Volatility Views 628: A Year's Worth Of Madness In One Week

Apr 11, 2025

Mike Dever, Founder and CEO of Brandywine Asset Management, joins the conversation on navigating today's turbulent markets. They delve into the dramatic market volatility reminiscent of 2008, examining strategies to capitalize on wild VIX swings. Unique trade insights include a striking 50K VIX butterfly and contrasting predictions for VIX's future. The discussion highlights the crucial role of risk management and diversification along with engaging polls about trader behavior, painting a vivid picture of the current financial landscape.

01:01:59

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Mike Dever

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Quick takeaways

The podcast discusses extreme market volatility that has compressed a year's worth of trading activity into just a few days.

Traders are navigating heightened risks influenced by ongoing geopolitical trade tensions, prompting a need for disciplined risk management strategies.

Predictions for the VIX and market behavior indicate a potential decrease in volatility over time, despite ongoing short-term fluctuations.

Deep dives

Market Volatility Overview

The recent market activity has been characterized by extreme volatility, resembling a year's worth of market actions compressed into just a few days. Analysts have noted significant fluctuations around major strike levels like 5,000 and 4,900 on the S&P 500, with large rallies following news of potential trade war resolutions. The S&P experienced a remarkable 9.5% rally in a single day, marking it as one of the largest up moves recorded in modern history. Observations link the volatility to fears stemming from global trade tensions, making this period unprecedented for both traders and investors.

Intro

3min

A Week of Unprecedented Market Madness

2min

Market Turbulence and Strategic Insights

4min

Navigating Market Volatility

14min

Navigating VIX Volatility

23min

Navigating Volatility and Options Trading

14min

Engaging with Market Insights and Live Updates

3min

In this episode of Volatility Views, Mark Longo, Russell Rhodes, Mark Sebastian (The Option Pit) and guest Mike Dever from Brandywine Asset Management discuss the unprecedented market volatility and massive rallies, reminiscent of 2008 price movements. They also analyze wild swings in the VIX and general stock market, sharing insights and strategies employed throughout the week. Significant trades, including a remarkable 50K June 50-100-150 VIX butterfly, are broken down and examined. Predictions for VIX's future behavior range from 25.69 to 33.29, reflecting varying outlooks on upcoming market conditions. Engaging polls regarding Zero-Day traders' activity levels and notable trade strategies provide a comprehensive view of market sentiment. The episode concludes with final thoughts on the landscape for short stocks versus long vol strategies. 01:05 Welcome to Volatility Views 01:52 Market Recap and Trading Insights 03:19 Special Guests and Market Analysis 06:21 Brandywine Asset Management Overview 07:33 Volatility Review 08:16 Historic Market Movements and Analysis 22:40 VIX Futures and Options Discussion 32:53 Analyzing Recent VIX Trades 33:56 Weekly Options Expiration Insights 35:27 High-Risk, High-Reward Trades 37:02 Flash Poll Results and Market Reactions 37:27 Unusual VIX Options Activity 42:01 VIX Options and Market Trends 46:12 Inverse Volatility Products Discussion 50:09 Market Sentiment and Future Predictions 51:47 Final Thoughts and Upcoming Events

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