In this episode, Galen Druke discusses the growing concern among Democrats about Joe Biden's future as a candidate and the potential for a replacement, focusing on post-debate polling data, speculation about Kamala Harris as a nominee, and the implications of a transition in presidential nomination. The episode also covers Democratic worries over Biden's leadership, the role of Trump in the 2024 election, and breaking news about business leaders urging Biden to step down.
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Quick takeaways
Democratic lawmakers question Biden's viability for 2024 candidacy, sparking speculation of replacement.
Post-debate polls show Trump gaining ground on Biden; potential shift in voter sentiment noted.
Speculation rises on Harris as a possible Biden replacement; focus on unity against Trump.
Deep dives
Uncertainty Over Biden's Nomination
Recent events have led to uncertainty over whether Biden will continue as the Democratic nominee in 2024. Lawmakers have expressed concerns about his candidacy, with some suggesting that Trump could win if Biden remains the nominee. The New York Times reported that Biden is considering his future in the race, adding to the speculation.
Impact of Post-Debate Polling
Post-debate polls indicate that Trump has gained ground on Biden, with an average increase of over two points in margin. Some polls even show Biden gaining margin, but overall, Trump's rise is evident. National polls post-debate suggest a +3 advantage for Trump, highlighting a significant shift in voter sentiment.
Speculation on Democratic Nominee
Amidst uncertainty, speculation grows around who could replace Biden if he steps aside. The possibility of Kamala Harris becoming the nominee gains traction, with online betting markets favoring her over Biden. Democrats are contemplating the implications and logistics of a potential change in the nomination.
Election Dynamics and Potential Scenarios
Discussions revolve around the potential electoral impact of a Biden withdrawal and Harris assuming the nomination. Questions arise regarding chaos in the party, delegate competency in a nomination scramble, and the strategic considerations surrounding a shift from Biden to Harris. As the situation evolves, the focus shifts towards identifying the best candidate for the upcoming election cycle.
Business Leaders' Call for Change
Business leaders have called for Biden to step aside and pass the nomination to a new generation of Democrats. This adds to the growing pressure on Biden's candidacy and reflects concerns about his ability to lead effectively. The Democratic Party faces decisions regarding its future leadership and electoral prospects.
Implications of Electoral Dynamics
Amid concerns about Trump and Biden's popularity, the focus shifts to finding a candidate who can unify anti-Trump voters. The possibility of an open convention or a smooth transition to Harris as the nominee presents challenges and opportunities for the Democratic Party. While uncertainty persists, the electoral calculus remains centered on confronting the Trump factor in the upcoming election.
The ground has started to shift beneath President Joe Biden's feet. Between Tuesday and Wednesday, multiple Democratic lawmakers raised questions about his viability as a candidate in 2024 and weighed in on who might replace him should he step aside.
In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen Druke speaks with Senior Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley about the latest data on how voters are reacting to Biden's debate performance and what could happen next.