Making Sense with Sam Harris - Subscriber Content

#402 - The Geopolitics of Trump 2.0

Mar 1, 2025

Niall Ferguson, a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution and author of influential works like "The Pity of War", joins the conversation to dissect the current geopolitical landscape. They discuss Trump’s approach to the Ukraine conflict and Europe's evolving defense strategy, highlighting concerns over U.S. foreign policy and national debt. Ferguson also critiques the erosion of governance competence, the complexities of free speech and far-right politics, and how Trump's tactics in the Middle East contrast with current policies.

01:30:29

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Niall Ferguson

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Quick takeaways

Trump's second term mirrors Roosevelt's in executive action intensity, yet aims to reduce federal influence while navigating economic recovery post-COVID-19.

The confusion surrounding U.S. foreign policy under Trump has alarmed allies and emboldened adversaries, reflecting a disjointed strategic vision in international relations.

As European leaders acknowledge dwindling U.S. security guarantees, a shift towards greater defense autonomy could fundamentally alter transatlantic relations and strategic dynamics.

Deep dives

Trump's Presidency Compared to 1933

The first month of Trump's second term is likened to the beginning of Franklin Roosevelt's presidency in 1933, in terms of the frenetic pace of executive actions. However, while Roosevelt aimed to expand the federal government through the New Deal, Trump's approach is focused on reducing federal influence as the economy rebounds from the COVID-19 pandemic. The rapid issuance of executive orders suggests an aggressive start, raising questions about whether Trump could surpass Roosevelt's record for orders issued. This historical framework provides insight into the contrasting goals of both presidencies amidst significant national transitions.

Intro

3min

Shifting European Defense Dynamics

9min

Reevaluating American Foreign Policy

32min

Erosion of Competence in Governance

19min

Navigating Free Speech and Far-Right Politics

12min

Trump's Geopolitical Tactics in the Middle East

7min

The Alarming Trajectory of U.S. National Debt

2min

Trump 2.0: Consequences and Future Scenarios

6min

Sam Harris speaks with Niall Ferguson about the current geopolitical situation. They discuss how Trump is handling the war in Ukraine, Europe’s changing relationship to the U.S., security concerns around Trump’s appointees, the economic impacts of Trump’s policies, how China views political turmoil in the U.S., whether democracy can withstand Trump 2.0, Elon Musk and X, free speech in the United Kingdom, Trump’s plan for Gaza, and other topics.

Sir Niall Ferguson, MA, DPhil, FRSE, is the Milbank Family Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University, and a senior faculty fellow at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard. He is the author of 16 books, including The Pity of War, The House of Rothschild, and Kissinger: 1923-1968: The Idealist, which won the Council on Foreign Relations’ Arthur Ross Prize. He is a columnist with The Free Press and The Times. He is also the founder and managing director of Greenmantle, a New York-based advisory firm, a co-founder of the Latin American fintech company Ualá, and a co-founding trustee of the new University of Austin.

Website: niallferguson.com

X: @nfergus

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