How to Find Waiver Gems and “The” Dented Can for 2025: RSP Film and Theory with Adam Harstad and Matt Waldman
Nov 22, 2024
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Adam Harstad, a celebrated fantasy football analyst and FSWA’s Fantasy Writer of the Year, joins to share his insights. They dig into strategies for unearthing waiver wire gems and discuss deep dynasty roster management. A spotlight shines on Chris Olave, touted as the top 'dented can' prospect for 2025. The duo emphasizes the significance of informed decision-making and player evaluation, while also playfully debating the whimsical idea of time travelers in the NFL. Hilarity ensues as they consider how team dynamics and individual talents shape fantasy fortunes.
Searching for waiver gems involves identifying promising player archetypes, such as backup quarterbacks and underperforming running backs with organizational support.
Draft selection remains critical, as historical success in fantasy leagues relies heavily on foundational choices made during drafts.
Savvy roster management and monitoring player involvement can create opportunities to capitalize on emerging talents in subsequent seasons.
Deep dives
The Lopsided Nature of Fantasy Talent Acquisition
Fantasy football relies on several methods for acquiring talent, typically viewed as a three-legged stool: the draft, trades, and waivers. However, one speaker argues that it's more like a four-legged table, adding lineup management as a crucial aspect. He points out that while waivers hold potential, in practice they are often less impactful compared to the benefits gained from the draft. The speaker notes that historically, about 80-90% of a team's success hinges on players selected during the draft, making it essential to prioritize those foundational choices.
Waiver Wire Tactics and Player Archetypes
When searching for valuable players on the waiver wire, specific archetypes stand out as more promising. The discussion emphasizes the significance of identifying backup quarterbacks, especially highly drafted ones who show potential, as they often outperform expectations when given a chance. Concurrently, underperforming backup running backs whom organizations have shown interest in can also yield valuable fantasy points, as demonstrated by players like Chase Brown and Kyron Williams, who have been solid additions after being picked from waivers. Such players often emerge as productive options based on organizational commitment and past performance.
Predicting Value from Waiver Picks
While acknowledging that the chances of hitting big off the waiver wire are slim, there are still strategies to identify potential value. The discussion recalls a study of the top 100 dynasty players, revealing only a small fraction were ever available on waivers. The conversation highlights that predicting which players might become valuable requires attention to signs of organizational support and player development rather than just flashy statistics. This approach requires understanding the nuances behind a team's confidence in certain players, as successful prognosticators focus not only on immediate stats but also on the broader organizational context.
Strategies for Late-Season Roster Adjustments
As the season progresses, savvy fantasy managers adjust their rosters based on performance and potential. The speakers suggest cutting underperforming players from eliminated teams, particularly tight ends and defenses, to make room for backup quarterbacks and promising rookies. They stress that during this period, it becomes crucial to monitor players receiving consistent snaps and organizational praise. This predictive strategy allows managers to potentially exploit situations where players might flourish in the following season based on their current opportunity and the team's needs.
Identifying High-Value Players Through Observational Insights
The discussion emphasizes the importance of paying attention to reports and insights about players to gauge their potential for success. If coaches or quarterbacks mention players without prompt, it usually indicates that those players are valued within the organization. Observational stats, like snap counts and the involvement of younger players in practice, also serve as significant indicators of a player’s future role. Notably, if a coach highlights a player's route-running ability or commitment during press conferences, it signifies that such a player could emerge as a key asset on a fantasy roster.
Adam Harstad and Matt Waldman discuss viable archetypes for productive free agents in fantasy leagues and reveal their unanimous choice for "the" dented can prospect this offseason.
There are a lot of excellent writers and analysts in the fantasy industry. There are few that I hold in as high a regard as Adam (and not surprising he earned the FSWA’s Fantasy Writer of the Year). He’s a forthright human being with a tremendous intellect whose approach to analysis in this space differs from most.
He’s also an excellent fantasy GM in re-draft and dynasty formats. Adam spends a lot of time examining results and dealing with broad themes of decision-making that help us become better fantasy players and fantasy analysts.
https://youtu.be/wNCEq73aMFk
Topics
How to Find Gems on Waivers
Players Matt and Adam are monitoring or keeping as luxuries on deep dynasty rosters.
Chris Olave: the best dented-can prospect entering the 2025 offseason.
And of course, if you want to know about the rookies from this draft class, you will find the most in-depth analysis of offensive skill players available (QB, RB, WR, and TE), with the 2024 Rookie Scouting Portfolio for $21.95.
Matt’s new RSP Dynasty Rankings and Two-Year Projections Package is available for $24.95
If you’re a fantasy GM interested in purchasing past publications for $9.95 each, the 2012-2023 RSPs also have a Post-Draft Add-on that’s included at no additional charge.
Best yet, proceeds from sales are set aside for a year-end donation to Darkness to Light to combat the sexual abuse of children.
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