Stephanie Pomboy: The Way We Invest Is Coming To An End

52 snips

Sep 10, 2025

Stephanie Pomboy, a macro analyst and founder of MacroMavens, discusses the shifting economic landscape amid rising capital costs and inflation. She highlights alarming job market revisions, suggesting millions are outside the labor force, and warns that the era of globalization is ending. Pomboy also explores the complexities of reshoring manufacturing and its implications for economic stability. With corporate credit at risk and a potential recession looming, she emphasizes the need for cautious investment strategies, particularly in precious metals.

Ask episode

AI Snips

Chapters

Transcript

Episode notes

INSIGHT

End Of The Old Investing Framework

The investing framework we've known for decades is ending as inflation and cost of capital rise moderately higher.
This shift will materially change financial market dynamics and asset valuations.

INSIGHT

Labor Market Narrative Has Flipped

Recent labor data (ADP, JOLTS) show the jobs market cooling and a reversal from the 'too hot' narrative.
That flip undermines the Fed's prior emphasis on a overheated labor market as justification for policy.

INSIGHT

Payroll Revisions Reveal Weaker Reality

The BLS overstated payroll strength by nearly a million jobs in revisions, revealing weaker fundamentals than markets assumed.
Asset prices that had priced in stronger growth now face a disconnect from economic reality.

Get the Snipd Podcast app to discover more snips from this episode

Get the app

The cost of capital is rising.Inflation may be more present in future years, especially as we re-shore manufacturing.And as we re-shore it, we are also re-introducing our economy's exposure to the natural business cycle -- something we'd largely been able to divorce our exposure to by pushing it onto other countries during the era of Globalization.In short: the entire framework we've been accustomed to investing in is coming to an end, warns macro analyst Stephanie Pomboy.What will the likeliest implications be?Watch this video to find out.#inflation #jobs #costofcapital 0:00 - Jobs market revisions: 911,000–919,000 fewer jobs than expected, signaling weakness3:02 - Payrolls at 22,000 vs. 75,000 expected, unemployment at 4.3%, highest in years4:40 - Stephanie’s analysis: Jobs data overstated, markets ignore economic weakness6:47 - Markets treat revisions as a non-event, expect Fed rate cuts to offset12:04 - Consumer spending weak, high debt costs, and job market slowdown threaten14:44 - Unemployment rate (4.3%) vs. Fed funds rate: Historical recession patterns17:27 - Reshoring manufacturing: Long-term process, not immediate economic boost19:01 - Quits rate collapse signals job insecurity despite soaring asset prices21:10 - Great Resignation shifting to job retention, boomers may unretire23:32 - Unemployment rate understates true weakness, millions outside labor force24:51 - Reshoring manufacturing: Benefits and challenges, higher costs, wages27:49 - End of globalization: Higher production costs, economic demand for liquidity30:46 - Financial markets face volatility, reimporting business cycle33:00 - Framework shift: Higher inflation, costlier capital reshape investing35:31 - Adam’s outlook: Short-term bearish, medium-term bullish, long-term bearish37:45 - Policy responses: Aggressive stimulus likely, but deficits persist39:27 - Gold as hedge against global fiat debasement, developed world debt issues41:34 - FOMC expectations: 25–50 bps cut, markets expect dovish tone44:55 - Yield curve control likely if long rates resist Fed cuts46:24 - Bond yields: Potential short-lived rally, then upward pressure from deficits48:36 - Gold outlook: Strong gains, but expect sell-the-news correction51:30 - Hedging gold positions with inverse ETFs to manage pullback risk53:39 - Gold demand driven by non-Western investors, U.S. demand lags58:44 - Corporate credit risks: $1 trillion debt due, extend-and-pretend fading1:01:17 - Housing market pressures: High costs, job losses could trigger bust_____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It’s important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer’s unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security’s or a firm’s past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2025 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.