The FAA has mandated flight reductions—ramping up toward a 10% cut at 40 of the busiest domestic hubs due to air traffic controller shortages—which severely restricts domestic "belly cargo" capacity for high-value shipments but largely spares all-cargo carriers like FedEx and UPS.

The ground market is defined by a financial squeeze hitting 3PLs like RXO, who are struggling as locked-in, lower contractual sales rates are undercut by suddenly spiking buy rates for trucks, evidenced by the National Truckload Index climbing from $1.68 per mile to $1.80 more recently. RXO's CEO calls this structural capacity exit—driven by tighter regulations and spiking insurance costs forcing smaller carriers out—one of the largest structural changes since deregulation, prompting the company to execute $165 million in total cost cuts and rely heavily on technology to achieve a 19% boost in broker productivity.

We pivot to the ocean sector, where Maersk upgraded its full-year EBITDA guidance ($9.0-$9.5 billion) despite facing a jaw-dropping 30.7% year-over-year decline in Q3 freight rates, a success attributed to superior operational execution, 7% container volume growth, and an integrated network that provides a "better moat" against spot volatility. Finally, we track localized labor pressure, including over 900 supply chain layoffs in Texas across diverse sectors like crude oil transport, and monitor the rigorous, impartial review promised by Surface Transportation Board nominees for the massive proposed $85 billion Union Pacific/Norfolk Southern merger.

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Michael J. Metts & Andy Welfle – 'Writing Is Designing'