The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast 1022: Mailbag - Rookie Running Backs, Joe Burrow's Injury, and More
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Sep 19, 2025 This week dives into rookie running backs and their slow starts, exploring how historical patterns might predict future performance. The impact of Joe Burrow's injury on Cincinnati's offense is analyzed, with caution about Jake Browning's influence on key pass-catchers. Javonte Williams is discussed as a hold, while Jordan Mason rises as a buy option due to injuries in the competition. The host emphasizes the importance of usage metrics and transparency in analytics, making for a compelling discussion on fantasy strategy.
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Rookie RB Slow Starts Are Common
- Rookie running backs often start slow; 18 of 25 top-30 rookies averaged under 14 PPR through two weeks since 2014.
- Early-season scoring explains about 25% of rest-of-season performance, so start-of-season form matters but is not destiny.
Early Form Doubles Odds But Explains Limited Variance
- Early production correlates with rest-of-season outcomes: 69% of rookies who started >=10 PPR through two weeks hit RB2+ rest of season vs 30% for slower starts.
- But correlation (R squared) is only ~0.26, so early form is informative but far from determinative.
Historical Comebacks From Slow Rookie Starts
- JJ lists past slow-start rookies who later produced, like Miles Sanders, Joe Mixon, Jamaal Gibbs, and Christian McCaffrey.
- These examples show slow two-week starts can still lead to strong rest-of-season production.