The David Lin Report Another 20% Market Crash, Recession This Summer; Is ‘Coup’ Against Trump Coming? | Peter Berezin
Apr 25, 2025
Peter Berezin, Chief Global Strategist at BCA Research, offers deep insights into the U.S. economic landscape, forecasting a potential recession by summer 2024. He discusses the implications of a weakening dollar and rising bond yields, highlighting concerns over fiscal vulnerabilities. The conversation also touches on the complex U.S.-China trade relations and their impact on investment strategies. With stagnant job claims indicating a tough job market, Berezin warns of a turbulent economic environment ahead.
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China's Trade Deal Disinterest
- China has little incentive to make a trade deal with the US, as its exports to the US are only about 2% of its GDP.
- China is watching the US economy struggle and likely won't help improve Trump's ratings by making a deal.
China's Historical Context and US Politics
- China opposes countries siding with the US against it, reflecting its historical sensitivity to Western intervention.
- Trump's decreasing popularity risks a Republican 'coup' to remove his tariff authority, with China welcoming US internal discord.
US Bond Yields Paradox Explained
- US bond yields remain high despite slower growth due to inflation risks, technical positioning, and political-fiscal uncertainties.
- Rising debt servicing costs and fiscal deficits worry investors, limiting yields from falling.