The tech market rebound is benefiting larger profitable companies at the expense of smaller money-losing ones.
NVIDIA's strategic positioning and history of identifying new markets make it an attractive investment opportunity.
While AI adoption may offer cost-cutting benefits, widespread availability could lead to decreased profits for most businesses.
Deep dives
The Tech Comeback in the Stock Market
The stock market has experienced a significant comeback for tech companies in the first half of the year. This rebound is primarily concentrated within the larger, profitable tech companies, creating a redistribution of value from smaller, money-losing tech companies. The comeback is driven by the recognition that these big tech companies have built significant buffers and can cut costs without affecting revenues. This has resulted in increased profitability and stronger margins, despite employing fewer people. The market is showing signs of animal spirits returning.
Valuation of NVIDIA and its Opportunistic Growth
NVIDIA, a chip company, has strategically positioned itself as the provider of infrastructure for the online and social media revolution. The company has shown an opportunistic streak in identifying new markets and benefiting from their growth. NVIDIA's success in gaming, crypto, and now AI is not simply a matter of luck, but a deliberate strategy. Despite its history of stock price fluctuations, including near-death experiences, NVIDIA remains a valuable investment opportunity, especially when considering its potential to dominate future emerging markets.
The Evaluation of NVIDIA's Market Potential and Risks
While NVIDIA has been successful in its opportunistic approach and is poised to benefit from the AI chip market, there are concerns regarding its current valuation. Even under the most bullish assumptions about the AI market's size and NVIDIA's market share dominance, its current stock price is considered too high. To justify the current price, an additional market as substantial as the AI market would need to emerge, which is uncertain. As a result, cautious investors may consider reducing their holdings in NVIDIA or closely monitoring the stock's performance.
The Negative Sum Nature of AI
AI is often seen as a way to cut costs and increase profits for businesses, but it may not deliver the promised results. The prevalence of AI adoption leads to price cuts and reduced profit margins due to increased competition. While certain companies may benefit, such as NVIDIA in providing infrastructure for AI growth, most companies will see diminishing returns. AI is unlikely to provide a sustainable competitive advantage as it becomes widely available to all, potentially resulting in lower profits for many businesses.
Market Outlook and Opportunities
The market outlook for the rest of the year will be influenced by inflation and how the Federal Reserve responds to it. Inflation levels higher than the Fed's target, but lower than last year, are anticipated. In this uncertain environment, market dynamics are likely to be counterintuitive, where good news may be interpreted as bad news and vice versa. As for investment opportunities, sectors and companies that have not experienced significant gains despite the market's overall performance in the first half of the year should be evaluated. These left-behind sectors could present attractive entry points for investors seeking potential undervalued stocks.
This week on Prof G Markets, Scott speaks with Aswath Damodaran, professor of finance at NYU’s Stern School of Business, about his valuation for NVIDIA, tech’s rally this year, the implications of AI when every company has it, and opportunities in the markets right now. Follow Aswath on Twitter, @AswathDamodaran.