An analysis of the current state of the renewables M&A market, reasons for declining valuation, pricing range and duration differences in credit transfers, investment opportunities in energy storage, carbon capture, and RNG, and the potential of green hydrogen as a game-changer in renewable energy.
The M&A market in the renewable sector has experienced a slowdown due to industry consolidation and changing valuations, but there is still strong interest from buyers domestically and internationally who view acquiring platforms as a key strategy for achieving long-term sustainability goals.
The shift in market dynamics has led to fewer projects changing hands at NTP or COD, with large developers transitioning to an IPP model, aiming to build up and de-risk portfolios before engaging in sell-downs.
Deep dives
State of the renewables M&A market
The M&A market in the renewable sector has experienced a slowdown due to various factors including industry consolidation and changing valuations. However, there is still strong interest from buyers, both domestically and internationally, who view acquiring platforms as a key strategy for achieving long-term sustainability goals. The slowdown is attributed to fewer opportunities in the mature market, as well as changes in valuations and deal structures. Additionally, factors such as higher interest rates and the need to restructure power purchase agreements have affected the market, creating bid-ass spreads and a temporary delay in transactions.
The role of long-term holders in the renewable sector
The shift in the market dynamics has affected the traditional model where assets were quickly sold to long-term holders. With fewer projects changing hands at NTP or COD, the market is adapting. Large developers have transitioned to an Independent Power Producer (IPP) model, holding onto assets, resulting in less diversity in asset trading. However, these platforms still aim to build up and de-risk portfolios before engaging in sell-downs. While bilateral transactions have been less significant in the market, platforms are expected to transact to recycle capital and enable further development and growth.
Changes in the tax equity market
In the tax equity market, the cost of capital has not directly correlated with overall interest rates, though there has been an increase. The market has seen a wide range of proposals, with pricing ranging from 88 cents to 95 cents. Duration plays a role in pricing, with longer-term commitments offering lower pricing. The introduction of transferability has influenced the tax equity market, attracting new investors and allowing legacy tax equity investors to recycle capital. The market is evolving, and while there is currently a balance between supply and demand, the gap is expected to widen as new technologies such as energy storage and carbon capture gain traction.
Nick Knapp, partner and senior managing director at CohnReznick Capital, joins Todd Alexander for an overview of current and future market trends. Among the topics discussed are what is the current state of the M&A market, reasons behind any perceived slowdown, how the current climate affects strategies of asset holders, updates on the tax equity market, how transferability has affected that market and what are the best potential opportunities for investors.
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