Using OSINT to understand the closed environment of North Korea

The Impact of Border Closure on North Korea

The podcast discusses the significant impact of North Korea's decision to fully close its land, sea, and air borders in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. This border closure resulted in the halt of trade, including food and fertilizer imports, and interruption of illicit networks that generate revenue for the country. The closure also led to a decrease in on-the-ground reporting and limited access to accurate insights about North Korea's domestic situation. The closure's negative consequences on the country's food security and the challenges it poses for assessing North Korea are emphasized.

Understanding North Korea's Intent through Open Sources

The podcast highlights the importance of analyzing North Korean state media to understand the country's intent. By studying trends in language, narratives, and changes in topics discussed, listeners are encouraged to identify shifts in narratives and potential underlying messages. It is noted that intentions are not static and change over time, influenced by both short-term and long-term goals. The podcast also suggests looking beyond state media to indicators such as satellite imagery and external stimuli, like reactions to joint military exercises, to gain further insights into North Korea's intent.

Challenges and Opportunities of Open Source Intelligence on North Korea

The podcast explores the challenges and opportunities of using open source intelligence (OSINT) to analyze North Korea. While the closure of borders and limited access to defector reporting pose challenges, the podcast emphasizes the value of analyzing state media outlets, specialist news sites, and defector reports. Analyzing trends, patterns, and context is crucial for developing a nuanced understanding of North Korea's actions and intent. The podcast also highlights the complementarity between OSINT and classified sources, as well as the importance of regional perspectives and intelligence sharing in gaining a comprehensive understanding of North Korea.

The Importance of Trend Analysis in Assessing North Korea

The podcast stresses the importance of trend analysis in assessing North Korea's actions and intent. By observing patterns, changes in narratives, and trends in state media content over time, analysts can develop hypotheses and scenarios about the country's future. The podcast advises against seeking definitive conclusions but rather aims to generate a range of possibilities to better understand North Korea's trajectory. The need to avoid confirmation bias and consider multiple sources is emphasized to ensure a holistic assessment.

The World of Intelligence

Using OSINT to understand the closed environment of North Korea

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Quick takeaways

Deep dives

The Impact of Border Closure on North Korea

Understanding North Korea's Intent through Open Sources

Challenges and Opportunities of Open Source Intelligence on North Korea

The Importance of Trend Analysis in Assessing North Korea

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