Unusual Whales Pod Ep. 60: Tariff Developments and Potential Trade Deals sponsored by ETFs
May 1, 2025
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Yuri Khodjamirian, CIO of Tema ETFs, leads a dynamic panel that includes economist Adam Ozimek and research expert Marko Bjegovic. They dive into the shifting landscape of tariffs and their impact on the U.S. economy. Topics include the push for reshoring as companies respond to economic uncertainty, the effects of tariffs on supply chains, and the negotiation challenges between the U.S. and China. The discussion highlights how these factors are reshaping consumer behavior and the future of domestic manufacturing amid rising inflation.
The recent rise in U.S. imports ahead of new tariffs has contributed to economic contraction, marking significant uncertainty for businesses and consumers.
Consumer spending growth has decelerated in early 2025, reflecting a cautious sentiment amidst ongoing economic uncertainties and tariff impacts.
Reshoring efforts are increasing among companies aiming to boost U.S.-based production, though reliance on automation may hinder job growth and overall effectiveness.
Deep dives
Impact of Tariffs on Economic Uncertainty
The recent surge in U.S. imports ahead of new tariffs has contributed to economic contraction, marking the first decline since early 2022. The uncertainty surrounding tariff implementation has caused companies to pause major decisions, as they are unclear on the long-term effects of these tariffs. Many businesses are facing challenges in consumer confidence, with reports indicating consumers are hesitant to make large discretionary purchases. Current GDP figures may be misleading as they do not reflect the broader implications of trade policies and fluctuating consumer sentiment.
Trends in Consumer Spending
Consumer spending growth has shown a marked deceleration in the first quarter of 2025, decreasing from previous years’ higher performance levels. Despite a year-over-year growth of 1.8% being better than expected, the slowdown indicates a shift in consumer behavior amidst broader economic uncertainties. Companies reporting on consumer spending have not noted significant declines in booking trends yet, suggesting resilience, though they are proceeding cautiously. This ongoing cautious sentiment reflects fear of forthcoming economic impacts, particularly linked to shifting tariffs and inflation expectations.
Supply Chain Concerns and Shipping Data
The decline in shipments from China to the U.S. is a clear indicator of economic concerns as container bookings have decreased significantly year over year. This drop reflects growing uncertainty regarding tariff impacts and how they will affect inventory management for U.S. businesses in the near future. Many companies are lowering or removing guidance due to their caution, further underscoring the anxiety permeating the market. This trend is important as it could lead to a trickle-down effect impacting prices and employment if unresolved.
Corporate Reactions to Tariff Policies
In response to tariff challenges, many companies are opting for reshoring their manufacturing operations as a strategic move in the current environment. Significant investment announcements from various sectors highlight the trend towards increasing U.S.-based production, with financial commitments ranging in the billions. However, the effectiveness of these investments may be minimized if they rely heavily on automation and technology rather than job creation. Additionally, while some companies are increasing product prices due to rising costs, the application of tariffs could disrupt overall economic activity.
The Future of U.S. Trade Relations
Negotiating trade agreements appears essential for restoring international trust, particularly with key trading partners like China, Canada, and Mexico. Current tariffs and the deadlock in communications add layers of complexity that must be resolved through cooperative dialogues to avoid unnecessary economic fallout. The future stability of U.S. export markets hinges on whether the administration can effectively communicate and negotiate favorable trade terms. As nations find alternative routes for trade, the U.S. may face challenges in regaining its position as a dominant economic player without substantial policy reforms.
Unusual Whales Pod Ep. 60: Tariff Developments and Potential Trade Deals sponsored by ETFs
This episode of the Unusual Whales Pod was recorded Live on March 26th, 2025. Nicholas is joined by the CIO of Tema ETFs Yuri Khodjamirian, sponsored by Tema ETFs who manages the American Reshoring ETF Trading Symbol: $RSHO. Along with Yuri and a panel of experts, Nicholas explores the topics of tariffs, reshoring, nearshoring, and the global macroeconomic implications amidst ongoing tariff uncertainty
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