Talking Geopolitics Venezuela, Cuba, and the New Western Hemisphere Strategy
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Dec 23, 2025 
George Friedman, the chairman and founder of Geopolitical Futures, dives into the shifting U.S. strategy towards the Western Hemisphere. He highlights the importance of controlling the region while navigating complexities with China and Russia. Friedman explores Venezuela's oil dependence and Cuba's precarious economic situation. He discusses the strategic implications of cartel threats and the potential for upheaval in Cuba. As he forecasts future geopolitical trends, he emphasizes the significance of U.S. engagement in Latin America.
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U.S. Shift Back To Western Hemisphere
- The U.S. is reorienting from prolonged Eastern Hemisphere engagements back to securing the Western Hemisphere.
- George Friedman argues this returns to long-standing Monroe Doctrine principles and reflects recent global shifts.
Latin America As The Next Exporting Region
- A new low-cost exporting region will emerge after China's cycle ends, and Latin America is a plausible candidate.
- Friedman highlights South America's growing economies and investment as a potential 'next China' for global trade dynamics.
Naval Posture Signals A Cuba Strategy
- U.S. naval deployments around Venezuela exceed cartel-interdiction needs and signal a broader strategy.
- Friedman links this posture to pressure on Cuba by targeting Venezuelan oil flows that sustain Havana.