AppLovin Bull vs. Bear Case: What Operators Know That Investors Don't

AppLovin just crossed $250 billion in market cap. Stock up 127% YTD. EBITDA margins at 82%. Is this the beginning—or the top?

We assembled the most qualified panel possible to break it down: an operator running millions through AppLovin's platform, a gaming-focused financial analyst, and an institutional investor who's seen these cycles before.

What emerged isn't your typical bull-bear debate. It's a breakdown of how dominance actually works in ad tech—and what could break it.

IN THIS EPISODE

→ Why AppLovin doesn't need to be better than competitors—just 95% as good

→ The MAX/Axon lock-in that keeps publishers captive

→ E-commerce expansion: AppLovin is beating Google on Android

→ The SEC investigation and deplatforming risk (how worried should you be?)

→ What one operator's portfolio data reveals about where the cracks are forming

→ Each panelist's prediction for AppLovin in 2026

SPEAKERS

Josh Chandley — President & CEO, WildCard Games

Matthew Kanterman, CFA — Director of Research, Blue River Financial Group

Brian Peganoff — Former TMT Investor, Founder Timber Advisors

Joseph Kim — CEO, Lila Games

TIMESTAMPS

[00:00] Introduction & Panel Overview

[01:22] AppLovin Financial Recap: 127% YTD, 82% Margins

[04:52] Valuation Analysis: Is Growth Priced In?

[07:15] The Bull Case: Infrastructure Lock-In

[10:30] How MAX & Axon Create Publisher Dependency

[15:45] E-Commerce Expansion: Beating Google on Android

[22:10] Why Meta & Google Can't Compete on iOS

[28:40] The Bear Case: Five Risks

[35:20] SEC Investigation & Deplatforming Risk

[42:15] The Infrastructure Risk Nobody Discusses

[48:30] Competitive Landscape: Unity, Moloco, Meta

[58:20] Connected TV: Wild Card or Dead End?

[1:05:40] Panel Predictions for 2026

[1:15:30] Key Takeaways

LINKS

Newsletter: https://www.gamemakers.com

Full article: https://www.gamemakers.com/p/applovin-bull-bear-case

Pixels & Profits is a GameMakers series covering the business and investing side of the gaming industry.