HEDGE FUND MASTERCLASS - NAVIGATE EUROPE ENERGY CRISIS

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Macro Confessions Part XXVIII, projecting forward from the macro year 2007. Chris finds a Hank Moody like Acid Capitalist holed up in his friends' beautiful villa in St Barts. staring wistfully at the surf. The unthinkable has happened, Russian tanks have broken ranks and are moving in on Kiev.

Risk becomes philosophical. The Dice Man declares that if you can't think then you have no soul, for a soul is something subject to reflection. Little thinking seems apparent in this modern outbreak of war within the central theatre of Europe and so emotions will determine the landscape of European markets. 

The boys begin with a push back on the comments from Shell's trading desk. They claim that speculators are pushing energy prices up to levels that will impact harmfully on ordinary citizens. Pas de tout claims Hugh. It is the long awaited entrance of price discovery that reveals the lamentable record of Europe's leaders. No foresight, no courage has bequeathed a  generation with an acute shortage of local energy sources and no infra-structure to link with democratic suppliers. Fight them on the beaches, fight them in the markets...

Gas? It's still all about gas. The High Priest presents a detailed look behind the futures market for energy and the perils of trading commodity futures. He concludes that the blip in energy prices is most unlikely to prove transitory but will be levitated for much longer to encourage better political energy sourcing and to accelerate much needed energy infra structure.

When will the macro reset end? Hugh estimates that one has to keep an eye on mean reversion in the zeitgeist stocks of Apple and Meta. Are times changing? It does look like a return to a time of chaos. The 1970s had an energy crisis, the Russians ignored sovereign niceties and invaded another country and gold? Gold went to the moon. It bares close attention.

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