A deep dive into the War in Ukraine, covering false assumptions of a swift Russian victory, Ukrainian military transformation, Russian incompetence, public opinion, the role of the Orthodox Church, conspiracy thinking, Putin's popularity on the Right, NATO membership, Zelensky's leadership, war crimes, casualties, delays in US aid, nuclear blackmail, western sanctions, and potential resolution of the conflict.
Initial Russian delusions of swift victory in Ukraine stemmed from a misunderstanding of Ukrainian society and military evolution.
Russian military incompetence during the war was fueled by fear, misinformation, and unrealistic expectations of Ukrainian reception.
President Zelensky's leadership during the conflict exemplified moral clarity in defending Ukraine against Russian aggression, garnering international support and scrutiny of war crimes.
Deep dives
Origins of the Russian Invasion and Ukrainian Resistance
The Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 was based on delusional expectations of a swift victory due to a misunderstanding of Ukrainian society and military transformation. Initially, with volunteer units and minimal resistance, Ukraine was perceived as easy prey. However, by 2022, Ukraine had evolved into a professional fighting force with widespread anti-Russian sentiment due to previous occupations and mistreatment under Russian rule.
Russian Military Incompetence and Propaganda
Russia's military incompetence during the war was fueled by a culture of fear and misinformation within the ranks, leading to embellished reports to Putin about forces readiness. The Russian invasion was based on delusions that Ukrainians would welcome Russian forces, leading to a lack of preparedness and unrealistic expectations of swift victory. Additionally, Russian propaganda aimed to foster cynicism and erase the concept of truth, painting Ukraine as the aggressor while justifying unjust actions.
Zelensky's Leadership and Moral Clarity of the War
President Zelensky's decision to remain in Ukraine during the invasion showcased his leadership and commitment to the nation's defense. Seen as a hero for his resilience and direct communication with the public, Zelensky mobilized Ukrainians to resist the Russian aggression. The conflict highlighted the moral clarity of the war, with Ukraine defending against unjustified Russian attacks, leading to international support and scrutiny of Russian war crimes and propaganda.
Russian Goals in Ukraine
A senior Russian official revealed Russia's intentions towards Ukraine, emphasizing a goal of eradicating Ukraine as an independent country. The official stated that Ukrainians must choose to become Russians or face death, highlighting a concerning stance on Ukraine's sovereignty. The widespread belief in Russia about the necessity of Ukraine as a buffer zone against Western adversaries was debunked, with a focus on Russia's manufactured patriotism around World War II.
Impact on Ukraine and Russia
The conflict's toll on Ukraine includes 31,000 confirmed soldier deaths, numerous missing soldiers, and over 10,000 civilian casualties, with many unaccounted for due to limited access. Significant displacements occurred, with millions fleeing, mostly women and children. Conversely, Western sanctions on Russia showed some limitations, as Russian weaponry contained Western components and Russian energy deals persisted, raising questions about the effectiveness of the sanctions.
Sam Harris speaks with Yaroslav Trofimov about the War in Ukraine. They discuss the widespread false assumptions that Russia would win a swift victory, Ukrainian attitudes toward Russia, the transformation of the Ukrainian military, Russian incompetence, Russian public opinion, the Azov Battalion and the “de-Nazification” of Ukraine, the role of the Orthodox Church, conspiracy thinking and Russian propaganda, Putin’s popularity on the Right, NATO membership, the Minsk 2 agreement, alleged failures of Western diplomacy, Zelensky’s leadership, the moral clarity of the war, Russian war crimes, the new cult of WW2 victory in Russia, the numbers of casualties and displaced people in Ukraine, delays in US aid to Ukraine, nuclear blackmail, long-range weaponry, the weakness of western sanctions, the sabotage of the Nordstream pipeline, how the war might end, the complicated prospects of a Trump presidency, and other topics.
Yaroslav Trofimov is the chief foreign-affairs correspondent for The Wall Street Journal and the author of several books including Faith at War, Siege of Mecca, and most recently, Our Enemies Will Vanish. Born in Kyiv, Ukraine, and educated at New York University, he was a finalist for the Pulitzer Prize in international reporting in 2023, for his work on Ukraine, and in 2022, for his work on Afghanistan. His honors include an Overseas Press Club award for coverage of India as well as the Washington Institute gold medal for the best book on the Middle East.
