Peak Prosperity Ed Dowd: It Has Begun — Housing, Credit and FCF Have Cracked … Stocks Are Next
Nov 12, 2025
Ed Dowd, founder of Finance Technologies and former BlackRock portfolio manager, discusses looming economic challenges. He explains the 'Hindenburg Omen' and how deflationary signs are already emerging. Dowd critiques the AI bubble, highlighting its reliance on flawed human inputs and hidden government support. He links housing risks to immigration changes and warns of increasing fiscal fragilities in municipal debt. Finally, he offers insights on gold and Bitcoin while advising listeners on strategic preparation for potential market shifts.
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Episode notes
Don't Buy AI Hype As A Safe Bet
- Avoid relying on AI hype as a durable revenue source for investments right now.
- Do not assume current AI-capex winners like NVIDIA will keep trillion-dollar valuations intact.
AI Is A Subsidized, Hallucinating Engine
- AI today is mostly a subsidized, error-prone search engine that often hallucinates and adds time to workflows.
- Ed Dowd argues AI investments currently lack sustainable revenue and risk massive write-offs like past bubbles.
AI Economic Math Doesn't Add Up
- AI's hardware economics don't currently add up to sustainable ROI for hyperscalers and models.
- Ed Dowd calculates required subscription revenue far exceeds realistic market sizes.
