Good Revenue News Travel Tanked, Deals Died & Here's Why Sovereign AI Matters Now
As 2025 comes to a close, this episode steps back to assess the forces reshaping the global economy. We break down the real cost of tariffs, fragile deal markets heading into 2026, slowing international travel, rising sovereign AI strategies, and the quiet damage from deep cuts to science funding. Taken together, these stories show a world in transition, where short-term policy choices are setting long-term constraints that will shape markets, technology, and geopolitics in the year ahead.
🎯 WHAT YOU’LL LEARN
- Why tariffs delivered short-term revenue but long-term economic strain
- How deal markets, IPOs, and M&A are diverging as 2026 approaches
- Why international travel to the U.S. is still lagging pre-pandemic levels
- What sovereign AI really means and why countries are racing to build it
- How massive AI infrastructure spending is reshaping capital markets
- Why cuts to U.S. science funding may have lasting consequences
- What the final liquidation of Sears signals about American commerce
🔍 TIMESTAMPS
00:00 Intro — Year-End Reset: Tariffs, Deals, Travel & AI
00:53 Tariffs — Revenue Gains, Higher Prices & Legal Risk
02:45 Consumer Impact — Higher Costs & Uneven Burden
03:17 Supreme Court Outlook — Tariffs, Authority & Refund Risk
05:06 Travel Slump — Fewer Visitors, Lost Revenue & 2026 Outlook
07:07 Sovereign AI — National Models, Regulation & Geopolitics
11:46 Market Outlook — IPOs, M&A & Valuation Gaps
16:10 Deal Concentration — AI, Liquidity & Dry Powder
18:17 Science Funding Cuts — Lost Research & Long-Term Damage
20:05 Legacy Collapse — Sears and the End of an Era
21:30 Takeaway — An Unsettled Transition into 2026
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📚 SOURCES & DATA
- US Trade Data Tracker – Tariffs & Exports: https://dataweb.usitc.gov/
- Yale Study: State of US Tariffs 2025: https://budgetlab.yale.edu/research/state-us-tariffs-november-17-2025
- Wharton Updates Effective US Tariff Rates: https://budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/issues/2025/12/23/effective-tariff-rates-and-revenues-updated-december-23-2025
- US Capital Markets Outlook 2025 – PwC Report: https://www.pwc.com/us/en/services/consulting/deals/us-capital-markets-watch.html
- EY: Global IPO Trends Signal 2026 Rebound: https://www.ey.com/en_pt/insights/ipo/trends
- Data Centers vs Exits: https://pitchbook.com/news/articles/data-center-pile-in-shows-little-concern-about-exits?
- AI VC Trends: https://pitchbook.com/news/reports/q3-2025-ai-vc-trends?
- Travel Industry Recovery Dashboard 2025: https://www.ustravel.org/research/travel-recovery-insights-dashboard
- Korea’s Homegrown AI Ambition Expands: https://www.chosun.com/english/industry-en/2025/08/05/TYNCSW2PTRHAFOFQ24AD4QDQ3Y/
- The Diplomat: South Korea’s AI Autonomy Gamble: https://thediplomat.com/2025/07/south-koreas-sovereign-ai-gambit-a-high-stakes-experiment-in-autonomy/
- CSIS: South Korea’s AI Security Strategy: https://www.csis.org/analysis/ai-security-strategy-and-south-koreas-challenges
- Sovereign AI in India: https://www.ey.com/en_in/insights/ai/agentic-ai-india/sovereign-ai
- EU AI Act: https://artificialintelligenceact.eu/
- Australia AI: https://www.finance.gov.au/government/public-data/data-and-digital-ministers-meeting/national-framework-assurance-artificial-intelligence-government
- Germany to Double Defense Spending by 2030: https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2025/06/26/germany-plans-to-double-its-defense-spending-within-five-years/
- Japan to Become World’s 3rd Biggest Defense Spender: https://www.euronews.com/business/2025/12/26/japan-on-track-to-become-worlds-third-largest-defence-spender
- Sears & Seritage: Lampert’s Final Gamble: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/26/business/sears-seritage-edward-lampert.html
- Full list: https://youtu.be/9nIucRY_4FA
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