42 Macro analyzes the key macro question of whether soft economic data will catch up to hard data, or if hard data will decline to meet the soft data. Their outlook leans toward soft data catching up over a 3 to 12-month horizon, supported by recent consumer confidence metrics. The episode discusses why fading near-term volatility could be a winning strategy, the continued use of gold instead of bonds as a defensive holding, and a portfolio model tilted toward equities, gold, and Bitcoin. The firm highlights bullish quantitative signals for risk assets, ongoing reflationary policy regime, and opportunities in a potential 20% equity rally. Key risks include near-term volatility and rising global bond yields, while the TINA (There Is No Alternative) theme regains relevance in today's market climate.
The Macro Minute with Darius Dale