This podcast delves into the diverging macroeconomic events of the week, discussing central bank rate hikes and cuts. They explore the linear macro story across developed markets and the implications for the bond market. The hosts analyze the yield curve dynamics, predicting a trend of steepening. The episode also explores the recent BoC speech on balance sheet normalization and speculates on the timing of the first rate cut.
Monetary policy is shifting towards an easing cycle amid a divergent macro environment.
The Fed is adapting a balanced approach to policy adjustments, focusing on interpreting inflation data and managing balance sheet normalization.
Deep dives
The Macro Narrative and Monetary Policy
The discussion explores the divergent macro week, focusing on the linear macro narrative and potential disruptions. The supply shocks and their impact on inflation expectations are highlighted, suggesting a case for monetary policy easing. Central banks are contemplating the future path of monetary policy and the debate on anchoring from a monetary policy perspective.
Fed's View on Monetary Policy
The episode delves into the Fed's perspective on monetary policy adjustments. Powell's comments on inflation, data interpretation, and gradual disinflation are emphasized. The Fed's recognition of flat Phillips curve and low interest sensitivity in the economy is discussed, reflecting a balanced approach to policy adjustments.
Quantitative Tightening and Fed's Strategy
Quantitative tightening and the Fed's strategy for balance sheet normalization are outlined. The Fed's intention to skew asset holdings shorter and align floating rate liabilities with assets is highlighted. The episode discusses the Fed's approach to potential future bond purchases and the management of the balance sheet post-QT.
Bank of Canada Insights
Insights from the Bank of Canada's minutes and speech by Deputy Governor Gravel are analyzed. Discussions on core inflation, labor market, and the bank's process for rate decisions are explored. The evolving stance of the Bank of Canada in response to economic indicators and inflation dynamics is scrutinized.
This past week demonstrated the largest amount of macro divergence over the past several years, with one major central bank hiking rates while another cut, at the same time the Fed straddles a dovish and hawkish message. This week, Ian is joined by Ali Jaffery in CIBC Economics, and the duo begin the episode by discussing these events. Ali makes the case that the macro story across developed markets is still linear, and monetary policy is moving to an easing cycle. But how deep that easing cycle will be is the ultimate question, and what it means for the bond market is what Ian tries to unravel. Ian discusses his view on the yield curve, suggesting that a lack of tradeoff between inflation and growth leads to higher longer-term yields for any given level of the overnight rate. Ian goes as far as to call the time of death of the flattener, noting we have firmly moved into a trend steepening cycle. The duo discuss the recent BoC speech on balance sheet normalization, and end the episode opining on the recent BoC Survey of Deliberations and what that means for the timing of the first cut.
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