The Bitcoin Layer Global Macro Update: Bitcoin Support, Gold Ratio, & the Fed’s Cuts
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Sep 25, 2025 Nik provides an insightful global macro update, revealing Bitcoin's critical support levels and low volatility trends. He delves into the Bitcoin-gold ratio, illustrating why Bitcoin continues to outperform traditional assets. Discussions on Fed policy highlight its nuanced impact on credit and liquidity conditions, while analyzing the potential effects of a weaker dollar on global markets. With a keen eye on historical patterns, Nik predicts Bitcoin's long-term trajectory amidst evolving market structures.
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Funding Rate Drop Means Less Speculative Demand
- Falling funding rates show leverage is coming out of the market and reduce speculative price support.
- When funding becomes cheaper again, renewed leverage can amplify price moves in either direction.
Low Volatility Signals A Big Move
- Bitcoin's realized volatility is at structural lows in 2025, signaling a mature market equilibrium.
- Low volatility plus falling funding rates often precede larger moves when leverage returns.
Treat $105–108k As Key Bitcoin Support
- Watch the $105–108k area as critical support and prefer confirmation if it holds before adding exposure.
- If that support fails, expect a revisit toward the low $90ks.