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Venezuela, Trump & the New Multipolar World: What Markets Are Missing

10 snips
Jan 5, 2026
Marko Papic, a geopolitical strategist at BCA Research, and Jacob Shapiro, director of research at the Bespoke Group, offer sharp insights on the geopolitical implications of NicolĂĄs Maduro's arrest. They explore how this event signals a broader shift to a multipolar world, analyzing the fracture of global inflation narratives and the importance of industrial metals over traditional oil concerns. With emphasis on new investment opportunities in Latin America, they argue that passive investing is dead, urging active management in today's complex market landscape.
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INSIGHT

Bold Operations Create A Political Premium

  • The Maduro arrest creates a "Chuck Norris premium" where successful bold operations raise the chance of repeats.
  • Markets misread the move as purely oil-related when it's signaling a willingness to act regionally.
INSIGHT

Venezuela Is About Influence Not Immediate Oil

  • The intervention won't meaningfully increase global oil supply quickly due to Venezuela's broken industry.
  • The real prize is access and influence in Latin America as the US retrenches to its hemisphere.
INSIGHT

Age Of Empires: Commodities As Strategic Assets

  • A new "Age of Empires" logic may push states to hoard industrial metals rather than rely on global markets.
  • That shift would turbocharge demand and prices for industrial metals vital to energy transition and defense.
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