a16z Podcast Is Non-Consensus Investing Overrated?
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Sep 4, 2025 Martín Casado, a General Partner at a16z and former Nicira executive, joins Leo Polovets, General Partner at Humba Ventures with over 12 years in venture. They delve into the hot topic of non-consensus investing, debating its true value. Key discussions include the risks founders face straying from consensus, the concept of market efficiency, and why most startup failures stem from 'indigestion' rather than lack of resources. Their insights challenge conventional wisdom and explore the complex relationship between market trends and successful investment strategies.
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Early-Stage Markets Are Relatively Efficient
- Martín Casado argues early-stage markets are more efficient than people think and being alone in a view can mean you're missing something.
- He warns being blinkered to VC consensus is dangerous because follow-on capital matters.
Plan To Reach Investor Consensus
- Leo Polovets: eventually you must reach investor consensus if you depend on capital markets to survive.
- Founders should plan milestones that will convince follow-on investors to fund the next round.
Hot Rounds Tend To Stay Hot
- Hot prior rounds predict future hot rounds because markets inductively price winners early.
- That suggests investors often identify winners before broader markets do, not random hype.