Daniel and Kelly’s Extraordinary Universe Should we be worried about overpopulation or depopulation?
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Jul 8, 2025 
Dean Spears and Michael Geruso, both professors of economics and demography at UT Austin, share thought-provoking insights on the potential dangers of depopulation. They discuss the troubling decline in birth rates and its societal implications, contrasting them with historical fears of overpopulation. Anecdotes about parenting illustrate the urgency of changing perspectives on family size. The conversation also touches on ethical dilemmas in modern technology and the impact of coercive reproductive policies, making a compelling case for understanding demographic shifts.
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Birth Rates Drive Depopulation
- Global population decline is driven by birth rates falling below replacement levels.
- Population growth occurred despite falling birth rates because death rates dropped even faster.
Worldwide Depopulation Trends
- Birth rates vary globally, but most regions already have or are approaching below replacement fertility.
- Depopulation is likely worldwide, not just in rich or developed countries.
Predicting Population Trends
- Demographers predict population trends well for 10 years due to demographic inertia.
- Long-term fertility trends are uncertain, but history shows fertility rarely rebounds above replacement once it falls below it.
