Razib Khan's Unsupervised Learning Steve Hsu: China's inevitable rise and America's confused response
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Jul 21, 2025 
In a thought-provoking conversation, Steve Hsu, a Caltech-trained physicist and professor at Michigan State, dives into China's rise as a global rival. He argues that the nation’s demographic realities and educational advancements will fuel its growth for decades. Hsu critiques American policies that hinder innovation, stressing the need for a realistic approach to US-China relations. They also explore AI's potential economic impacts and how cultural dynamics shape perceptions of power, all while challenging stereotypes about intelligence across regions.
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China's Demographic Reality
- China's current demographic issue won't impact its labor force for 20-25 years because the workforce is already born.
- The growing tertiary education among Chinese youth will increase productivity and offset lower numbers temporarily.
China's Educational Surge
- Chinese students show stronger math and science skills than American peers, often better prepared for AI fields.
- Tertiary education access has expanded significantly, allowing talented youth to flourish in China more than in the past.
China's Test Scores Validity
- Chinese PISA scores focus on wealthier provinces but still represent hundreds of millions of high-performing students.
- Asian American high school data aligns with expectations of a stronger math ability distribution compared to U.S. peers.