Performing Credit Quarterly 3Q2024: Who Are the Lenders Now?
Oct 30, 2024
auto_awesome
A deep dive into the evolving landscape of lending reveals how regulatory changes are pushing traditional banks away from corporate lending. As a result, alternative capital providers are stepping in, especially in asset-backed finance. The conversation touches on exciting growth sectors like aircraft leasing and consumer credit. Additionally, they delve into broader trends such as the implications of the Fed's first interest rate cut and a resurgence in M&A and LBO activities, along with the growing prominence of PIK financing.
43:46
AI Summary
AI Chapters
Episode notes
auto_awesome
Podcast summary created with Snipd AI
Quick takeaways
The anticipated end of the Fed's hiking cycle may stimulate increased M&A and LBO activity, enhancing loan supply dynamics.
As traditional lenders retreat due to regulatory pressures, alternative capital providers are increasingly stepping in to fill the asset-backed finance gap.
Deep dives
Interest Rate Cuts and Market Reactions
The first interest rate cut in September 2024, ending the Fed's hiking cycle, is anticipated to foster new mergers and acquisitions (M&A) and leveraged buyouts (LBO) activity, enhancing loan supply in public debt and direct lending markets. This follows a series of mixed economic signals that had previously hampered decisive action from the Federal Reserve. Increased loan issuance is expected as the leveraged finance markets continue to absorb newly issued corporate loans, creating a favorable environment for investors. However, fluctuating Treasury yields reveal investor frustration and the challenge of accurately predicting interest rate movements.
The Rise of Alternative Capital Providers
With traditional banks retrenching from corporate lending due to heightened regulations following the financial crisis, alternative capital providers are increasingly stepping in, particularly in asset-backed finance (ABF). The migration of ABF towards these alternative sources indicates a potential financing void, as banks face challenges like increased capital requirements and risk-weighting on unrated assets. This shift may leave the core segment of ABF underserved, especially since insurers have a limited focus on investment-grade opportunities. As traditional lenders withdraw, alternative lenders could capitalize on this gap by providing essential capital in the ABF sector.
Regulatory Changes Impacting Bank Lending
Ongoing regulatory changes, particularly the Basel III endgame scheduled for compliance by 2025, will further constrain banks, requiring them to hold more capital and potentially making certain lending activities unprofitable. This regulatory squeeze is compounded by various economic pressures, including quantitative tightening and sector-specific stresses that are pushing banks to prioritize lower-risk lending opportunities. As banks increasingly view lending as inefficient in the current environment, they are likely to focus more on their safest client base and high-fee lending situations. This shift signifies a long-term change in lending behavior that could adversely affect their market share.
Opportunities and Risks in Alternative Lending Sectors
Specific sectors within asset-backed finance are identified as potential growth areas despite the challenges posed by banks’ withdrawal. For instance, the aircraft leasing sector is poised for opportunity due to supply constraints exacerbated by production delays at major manufacturers, offering financing avenues for savvy investors. Similarly, the rise of synthetic risk transfer (SRT) could provide banks with a strategy to sell off low-interest long-duration assets without a significant balance sheet impact. However, the unsecured consumer credit sector has faced volatility, resulting in tighter credit standards but creating favorable conditions for cautious investor strategies focusing on loans originating through personal interactions.
1.
The Shift in Lending Dynamics: Alternative Providers Rise as Banks Retreat
In the latest Performing Credit Quarterly, Armen Panossian (Co-CEO and Head of Performing Credit) and Danielle Poli (Assistant Portfolio Manager, Global Credit) explore the next frontier of private credit: asset-backed finance. They discuss how major regulatory changes are causing traditional lenders to retrench from the space, leaving a significant financing void. They also look at several other trends affecting credit markets, including the first Fed cut of the cycle, the return of M&A and LBO activity, and the rise of PIK within private credit.
You can read the 3Q2024 PCQ here (https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/default-source/default-document-library/pcq-3q2024.pdf?sfvrsn=89935466_5).
Get the Snipd podcast app
Unlock the knowledge in podcasts with the podcast player of the future.
AI-powered podcast player
Listen to all your favourite podcasts with AI-powered features
Discover highlights
Listen to the best highlights from the podcasts you love and dive into the full episode
Save any moment
Hear something you like? Tap your headphones to save it with AI-generated key takeaways
Share & Export
Send highlights to Twitter, WhatsApp or export them to Notion, Readwise & more
AI-powered podcast player
Listen to all your favourite podcasts with AI-powered features
Discover highlights
Listen to the best highlights from the podcasts you love and dive into the full episode