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The Insight by Oaktree Capital

Performing Credit Quarterly 3Q2024: Who Are the Lenders Now?

Oct 30, 2024
A deep dive into the evolving landscape of lending reveals how regulatory changes are pushing traditional banks away from corporate lending. As a result, alternative capital providers are stepping in, especially in asset-backed finance. The conversation touches on exciting growth sectors like aircraft leasing and consumer credit. Additionally, they delve into broader trends such as the implications of the Fed's first interest rate cut and a resurgence in M&A and LBO activities, along with the growing prominence of PIK financing.
43:46

Podcast summary created with Snipd AI

Quick takeaways

  • The anticipated end of the Fed's hiking cycle may stimulate increased M&A and LBO activity, enhancing loan supply dynamics.
  • As traditional lenders retreat due to regulatory pressures, alternative capital providers are increasingly stepping in to fill the asset-backed finance gap.

Deep dives

Interest Rate Cuts and Market Reactions

The first interest rate cut in September 2024, ending the Fed's hiking cycle, is anticipated to foster new mergers and acquisitions (M&A) and leveraged buyouts (LBO) activity, enhancing loan supply in public debt and direct lending markets. This follows a series of mixed economic signals that had previously hampered decisive action from the Federal Reserve. Increased loan issuance is expected as the leveraged finance markets continue to absorb newly issued corporate loans, creating a favorable environment for investors. However, fluctuating Treasury yields reveal investor frustration and the challenge of accurately predicting interest rate movements.

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