OIES Podcast – From Certainty to Volatility Beyond the Contract: Managing Risks and Opportunities for Renewable Assets with expiring CfD Support

In this latest OIES podcast from the Energy Transition Programme, Dimitra Apostolopoulou talks to Managing Director of Energy Management, Markets and Risk at Reventus Power, Naz Osmancik, about his latest paper titled “From Certainty to Volatility Beyond the Contract: Managing Risks and Opportunities for Renewable Assets with expiring CfD Support”. This podcast explores the shifting risk landscape for renewable energy projects as they move beyond the stability of government-backed Contracts for Difference (CfDs). We discuss how the expiry of CfDs exposes investors to wholesale price volatility, uncertain dispatch, and long-term market unpredictability—factors that can sharply erode equity returns, especially since much of the value in highly geared projects is realised late in their operational life. The discussion highlights the importance of early planning, robust hedging strategies, performance optimisation, and portfolio-level risk management, while also outlining what both original and secondary investors must consider when navigating merchant exposure. Finally, the conversation turns to policy implications, emphasising the need for frameworks that acknowledge latent risks and incentivise stronger investor capabilities as more renewable assets approach CfD expiry.

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