Big Take Why Global Economic Leaders Are Predicting a Slowdown
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Oct 16, 2025 
Brendan Murray, a Bloomberg reporter focused on global trade, shares insights from the IMF/World Bank meetings. Tracy Alloway and Joe Weisenthal, both Bloomberg journalists, contribute macro analysis on pressing economic issues. They discuss cautious optimism amidst rising debt and tariff unpredictability. The trio explores the erosion of institutional credibility and the role of U.S. trade policy. They also analyze the effects of AI on productivity and market responses to trade tensions, highlighting the interplay of regulation and deal-making in today's economy.
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Slow-Burn Risk To Global Growth
- The IMF warns of a slow-burn global slowdown driven by tariffs, rising debt, and weakening integration.
- These factors could shave long-term growth potential from ~3.5% to closer to 2.5–3% globally.
Public Optimism, Private Pessimism At IMF
- IMF officials publicly sounded upbeat while some deputies privately struck a far more pessimistic tone behind closed doors.
- That contrast suggests official forecasts may understate downside risks discussed informally.
Four Crosscurrents Threatening Stability
- The IMF flagged AI exuberance, institutional credibility erosion, rising government debt, and weakened globalization as key risks.
- These combined pressures threaten central-bank independence and fiscal buffers, amplifying downside risk.