The Compound and Friends

Hottest Stocks of the Year, Nvidia Tops Out, Predicting Recessions With Nick and Jessica

20 snips
Jun 25, 2024
Nick Colas and Jessica Rabe from DataTrek Research discuss market misconceptions, Nvidia's performance, energy stocks, the Sahm Rule Recession Indicator, and more. They explore recessions, market dynamics, and trading patterns, touching on Geneva trips, market analysis for 2024, stock growth, and Nvidia's potential corrections. Insights on stock trends, real estate performance, and wealth management wrap up the episode.
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ANECDOTE

Geneva Trip: Skydiving And Watches

  • Jessica Rabe described skydiving near Geneva and visiting the Patek Philippe Museum while meeting clients.
  • The trip combined leisure and intensive institutional client meetings in Geneva.
INSIGHT

Mid-Cycle Market Behaving Textbook

  • 2024's market has been 'freakishly textbook' with mid-cycle characteristics like low VIX and large-cap leadership.
  • Valuations rose despite higher 10-year yields because stronger growth expectations can offset rate effects.
INSIGHT

Growth Can Offset Rising Yields

  • S&P valuations rose to ~20x despite the 10-year moving from ~2% to ~4%, showing growth can outweigh rate headwinds.
  • Growth improvements can swamp 50-100bps moves in the 10-year when pricing equity multiples.
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