The Business Brew

Ryan Dobratz - Fannie, Freddie & The Future

34 snips
Aug 19, 2025
Ryan Dobratz, who runs the real estate strategy at Third Avenue, dives into the intriguing world of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. He discusses the political pressures facing these giants and their potential exit from conservatorship. The conversation delves into the current housing landscape, highlighting a recovery in new home construction and the rising interest in manufactured housing. Dobratz also shares insights on how AI is set to transform industrial real estate logistics and the impact of interest rates on various market sectors.
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INSIGHT

Shelter CPI Distorts Inflation Picture

  • Shelter component of CPI lags and inflates headline inflation versus real-time rent data.
  • If shelter normalizes, CPI could fall below 2% and push rates lower, benefiting real estate.
INSIGHT

Industrial Captures Embedded Rent Upside

  • Industrial real estate shows embedded rent upside because many leases roll slowly.
  • High-quality industrial REITs report strong NOI growth and have long-duration, low-cost debt protection.
INSIGHT

AI Helps Logistics But Won't Kill Demand

  • AI and automation could improve logistics efficiency but won't instantly erase industrial demand.
  • Slower supply deliveries, reshoring and higher inventory targets support continued industrial leasing.
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