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Finshots Daily

Is India’s stock market riding too high?

Oct 18, 2024
Explore the alarming CAPE ratio of 43 times and what it could mean for India's stock market. Discover how this ratio compares to previous market crashes and the implications of significant fund withdrawals by Foreign Institutional Investors. Delve into the contrast between short-term optimism and long-term insights in stock valuation, while understanding the CAPE ratio's limitations. Gain a strategic edge with advice on adopting a long-term investment perspective amidst the market's ever-changing dynamics.
08:03

Podcast summary created with Snipd AI

Quick takeaways

  • India's current CAPE ratio of 43 suggests potential market overvaluation and a risk of corrections similar to past crashes.
  • Despite high valuations, strong economic growth and foreign investment indicate that an imminent market downturn isn't guaranteed.

Deep dives

CAPE Ratio and Market Valuation

The cyclically adjusted price to earnings (CAPE) ratio provides a longer-term view of market valuation by averaging earnings over a decade and adjusting for inflation. Currently, India's CAPE ratio stands at 43 times, which is alarmingly close to levels recorded before significant market crashes, such as the 2008 financial crisis. A high CAPE ratio often indicates that stocks may be overpriced, suggesting a potential correction in the market. However, this ratio has limitations, as it does not account for recent market changes or stock buyback effects that can distort perceived value.

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