The Milk Road Show

Why Bitcoin Could Fall to 60–70K: Michael Nadeau’s Full Bear Thesis

19 snips
Nov 18, 2025
Guest
Michael Nadeau
Michael Nadeau, a data-driven crypto analyst and author of the DeFi Report, shares an intriguing bearish perspective on Bitcoin. He highlights the specific signals that influenced his bearish pivot, such as shifts in fiscal policy and market structure. Nadeau discusses how long-term holders are taking profits and warns about the potential for new buyers to amplify market declines. He also outlines what indicators would make him bullish again and estimates Bitcoin's fair value zone between 60–70K, providing insights into what the future might hold.
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INSIGHT

Data, Not Hype, Drove His Bear Call

  • Michael Nadeau flipped bearish after seeing market structure, liquidity, and capital-flow changes that increased downside probability.
  • He moved to cash aggressively as he judged the left-tail risk larger than melt-up upside.
INSIGHT

A Liquidity Transition Is Underway

  • Nadeau sees a transition in the economy from fiscal-driven liquidity to private-sector-driven liquidity.
  • That transition, plus tariffs, creates margin liquidity headwinds for risk assets like Bitcoin.
INSIGHT

Tariffs And Deficit Cuts Hit Liquidity

  • Tariff revenue and lower Treasury spending reduced the fiscal deficit and removed liquidity from markets.
  • Nadeau treats these moves as liquidity-negative and central to his bearish thesis.
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