“AI 2027: Responses” by Zvi

Yesterday I covered Dwarkesh Patel's excellent podcast coverage of AI 2027 with Daniel Kokotajlo and Scott Alexander. Today covers the reactions of others.

Kevin Roose in The New York Times

Kevin Roose covered Scenario 2027 in The New York Times. Kevin Roose: I wrote about the newest AGI manifesto in town, a wild future scenario put together by ex-OpenAI researcher @DKokotajlo and co. I have doubts about specifics, but it's worth considering how radically different things would look if even some of this happened. Daniel Kokotajlo: AI companies claim they’ll have superintelligence soon. Most journalists understandably dismiss it as hype. But it's not just hype; plenty of non-CoI’d people make similar predictions, and the more you read about the trendlines the more plausible it looks. Thank you & the NYT! The final conclusion is supportive of this kind of work, and Kevin points out that expectations at the major [...]

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Outline:

(00:21) Kevin Roose in The New York Times

(02:56) Eli Lifland Offers Takeaways

(04:23) Scott Alexander Offers Takeaways

(05:34) Others Takes on Scenario 2027

(05:39) Having a Concrete Scenario is Helpful

(08:37) Writing It Down Is Valuable Even If It Is Wrong

(10:00) Saffron Huang Worries About Self-Fulfilling Prophecy

(18:18) Phillip Tetlock Calibrates His Skepticism

(21:38) Jan Kulveit Wants to Bet

(23:08) Matthew Barnett Debates How To Evaluate the Results

(24:38) Teortaxes for China and Open Models and My Response

(31:53) Others Wonder About PRC Passivity

(33:40) Timothy Lee Remains Skeptical

(35:16) David Shapiro for the Accelerationists and Scott's Response

(45:29) LessWrong Weighs In

(46:59) Other Reactions

(50:05) Next Steps

(52:34) The Lighter Side

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First published:
April 8th, 2025

Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gyT8sYdXch5RWdpjx/ai-2027-responses

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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