The Intelligence from The Economist

America's next top-job model: our election forecast

Jun 12, 2024
Dan Rosenheck, Data Editor for The Economist, dives into America's election forecast, revealing Donald Trump's slightly higher chances of securing a second term. The discussion also touches on the increasing rates of malaria and groundbreaking vaccine advancements. Plus, they explore the intriguing 'tradwives' trend on TikTok, where traditional gender roles are celebrated, contrasting these ideals with the realities faced by modern working women. This episode challenges listeners to think critically about politics and societal roles.
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INSIGHT

Trump's Projected Win

  • The Economist's model predicts Trump has a 60% chance of winning the presidency.
  • This is based on polls and economic fundamentals, showing Trump leading in key states.
INSIGHT

Model Methodology

  • The model uses polls and fundamentals like the economy and presidential approval.
  • It combines these with historical voting data to predict each state's outcome.
INSIGHT

Biden's Unpopularity

  • Biden's unpopularity makes the election a referendum on him, not Trump.
  • Global inflation and other factors contribute to Biden's low approval ratings.
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