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The Intelligence from The Economist
America's next top-job model: our election forecast
Jun 12, 2024
21:40
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This podcast delves into America's election forecast model, giving Trump a slight edge. It also discusses progress on malaria vaccines and the rise of 'tradwives' on TikTok advocating for traditional gender roles.
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Quick takeaways
- Statistical forecast model predicts 60% chance of Trump winning second term, citing poll data and historical trends.
- Resurgence of malaria cases in Africa prompts innovation of new vaccines and insecticide strategies.
Deep dives
Strategic Modeling to Predict Election Outcomes
The Economist's data editor discusses a statistical forecast model that predicts a 60% chance of Donald Trump returning to the White House. The model combines poll data and historical tendencies, showing Trump leading in competitive states and the Sun Belt region. Factors such as Biden's unpopularity, global inflation implications, and voter behavior contribute to Trump's favorable position.
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Discover
highlights
Listen to the best highlights from the podcasts you love and dive into the full episode