#957 - What Are the Market Factors at Play? With Noelle Acheson
Jan 22, 2024
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Noelle Acheson, editor of the Crypto is Macro Now newsletter, discusses the equity rally, potential geopolitical headwinds, and the impact of the approved bitcoin spot ETF on Ethereum. They explore the disconnect between geopolitical risks and stock market highs, potential rotation from Bitcoin to US Treasuries, supply and demand factors of Bitcoin, and its role as a hedge. They also touch on recent market trends, opportunities in emerging economies, and economic experimentation in Argentina.
Investors may not be fully considering the risks involved in the stock market due to complacency and a lack of understanding.
Geopolitical risks, such as escalating tensions and potential disruptive events, are not being fully priced into the market, indicating a significant level of ignored risk.
Deep dives
Stock market complacency and conflicting narratives in the Bitcoin market
The current state of the stock market is marked by complacency and conflicting narratives in the Bitcoin market. Despite recalibrating rate expectations and escalating geopolitical tensions, stock markets continue to rise. This complacency may stem from investors overlooking the risks due to a lack of understanding. In the Bitcoin market, the narratives driving the market are conflicting, making it challenging to gauge its direction. The stock market's complacency and the Bitcoin market's conflicting narratives indicate that investors may not be fully considering the risks involved.
The outlook for the Fed and interest rates
There has been a shift in market sentiment regarding the Fed and interest rates. The market previously priced in a rate cut by March, despite no indications from economic data or Fed officials. However, there is now a recognition that the economy is doing well, leading to a decrease in the likelihood of a rate cut before March. This shift in sentiment suggests that the news of a strong economy is being viewed positively instead of negatively impacting stock prices. However, the overall outlook for risk assets, including stocks, is not favorable despite the positive economic data.
Geopolitical risks and their impact on markets
Geopolitical risks are a growing concern in the current market climate. From escalating tensions in various regions, such as Gaza and Ukraine, to the possibility of a Trump presidency and its implications, the market is not fully pricing in these risks. Investors may be overlooking geopolitical risks due to the difficulty in quantifying them and a desire to focus on more manageable risks and rewards. However, the risk of disruptive events such as oil supply disruptions or trade disruptions could quickly change the market dynamics. Overall, there is a significant level of risk in the market that is being ignored.
Bitcoin as a macro asset and its relationship to US treasuries
Bitcoin continues to be influenced by macro factors such as liquidity, geopolitical concerns, and rate expectations. It is not directly correlated to equities but is affected by these external factors. The current price drop in Bitcoin can be attributed to growing concerns in the macro environment, including rising bond yields and geopolitical risks. Bitcoin remains a hedge against economic uncertainty and geopolitical risks, making it an attractive asset for longer-term holdings. It also offers an alternative to traditional currencies, especially in countries facing currency turmoil. The relationship between Bitcoin and US treasuries reflects the dynamic between safe assets and higher risk assets in times of uncertainty.
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Noelle Acheson, editor of the Crypto is Macro Now newsletter, joins Ash Bennington to discuss the equity rally, potential geopolitical headwinds facing investors this year, and what the approved bitcoin spot ETF means for Ethereum and other digital assets. You can find more of Noelle's research here: https://noelleacheson.substack.com/
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