Active Defense: China’s Military Strategy Since 1949
Dec 29, 2023
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Explore China's military strategy from 1949 to the present, including the influences of revolutionary roots, technological advancements, and global events. Learn about the challenges and capabilities of Chinese military personnel and the implications of China's militarization of the South China Sea and a possible invasion of Taiwan. Understand the role of motivation, values, and leadership in military operations and the impact of emerging technologies on warfare.
China's military strategy has shifted from defensive to a more forward-leaning posture, aiming to counter threats and modernize its forces.
The People's Liberation Army (PLA) is the armed wing of the Communist Party of China (CCP), reflecting the political power that flows from the barrel of a gun.
Understanding China's evolving military strategy, political nature, and focus on achieving political objectives is crucial for effective de-escalation mechanisms and negotiation channels.
Deep dives
Chinese military strategy influenced by historical roots and technological innovations
China's military strategy has been shaped by its revolutionary roots and an adaptation to changes in the international system and technological advancements. The concept of active defense, originating from the Chinese Civil War, remains an important guiding principle. China's strategy has shifted from a defensive mindset to a more forward-leaning posture, aiming to counter threats and modernize its forces. The country's focus on anti-access/area denial and informatized warfare reflects its response to changes in the conduct of war. The Ukraine-Russia conflict serves as a reminder that wars rarely unfold as anticipated, and technological advancements do not guarantee military capability. The challenge for the analysis and policy communities lies in understanding China's evolving strategy and its implications for regional dynamics.
China's military structure and decision-making process
The People's Liberation Army (PLA) is the armed wing of the Communist Party of China (CCP), reflecting the political power that flows from the barrel of a gun. The PLA is subordinate to the Central Military Commission (CMC), which consists of CCP members, including the Chairman (often the head of the party, currently Xi Jinping), and military officers. The CCP exerts control over the military, utilizing it as a political entity to maintain power. The military's primary role is defensive, with the Minister of Defense focusing on military diplomacy. The PLA's doctrine is influenced by Communist Party ideology and traditional Chinese culture, emphasizing party subordination and aligning military strategy with political objectives.
Factors influencing changes in Chinese military strategy
Changes in Chinese military strategy are influenced by two main factors: shifts in the international conduct of war and the unity within the CCP. China's strategy adapts to changes in technology and lessons learned from global conflicts, such as the Industrial Revolution in warfare or the Gulf War. These external factors trigger strategic reevaluations and the pursuit of new military capabilities. Additionally, the CCP's unity enables the delegation of responsibility to PLA leaders, allowing them to propose strategy changes aligned with party goals. The interplay between external influences and the CCP's leadership dynamics shapes China's approach to military strategy.
Implications for the analysis and policy communities
The study of China's military strategy requires considering historical roots, technological developments, and potential future trends. Analysts and policymakers should recognize the evolving nature of China's strategy, emphasizing active defense, anti-access/area denial, and informatized warfare. Understanding the political nature of China's military and its focus on achieving political objectives reinforces the need for effective de-escalation mechanisms and negotiation channels. The implications of wars between strategic competitors, such as conflicts over the South China Sea or Taiwan, are not limited to local theaters and can have global repercussions. Additionally, the challenge lies in assessing China's ability to learn and adapt, incorporating lessons from conflicts like Ukraine while considering the role of leadership and institutional culture within the PLA.
The role of current trends in the conduct of war on China's strategy
Current trends in the conduct of war, such as new technologies and the lessons from conflicts like Ukraine, have potential implications on China's military strategy. The combination of evolving technologies, including AI and machine learning, and China's industrial and technological development could lead to innovative warfighting methods. However, the challenge lies in harnessing the full potential of these technologies and adapting military capabilities accordingly. Lessons from the conflict in Ukraine remind us that wars rarely unfold as anticipated, emphasizing the importance of understanding the complexity of military operations. The analysis of current trends and their influence on China's strategy should consider the broader political and socio-cultural factors at play, as military capability alone does not guarantee success on the battlefield.
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How have the revolutionary roots of China’s military forces influenced Chinese military strategy? How has the doctrine of the People’s Liberation Army been influenced by global events, changes in the international system, and technological advancement? And what does China’s military strategy—shaped by all of these factors—look like today, particularly with respect to the flashpoints of Taiwan and the South China Sea? This episode features a discussion with retired Lieutenant General Charles W. Hooper and Professor M. Taylor Fravel, who join our hosts to explore the historical arc of contemporary Chinese military strategy since 1949.