Explore how mega cap tech stocks have driven market growth in 2024 and the potential for new investment opportunities beyond the 'Magnificent 7'. Delve into the evolving landscape of AI investments and the importance of long-term strategies over quick returns. Discover how the software sector remains resilient amid economic challenges, with a focus on consumer earnings and inflation impacts. The conversation even takes a lighthearted turn with a fun prediction about a local basketball team's future success.
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Quick takeaways
The AI sector has seen an 80% increase in capital expenditure, outpacing non-AI technology's mere 2% growth over three years.
With improving economic conditions and stabilizing interest rates, software companies are poised for significant recovery and growth opportunities.
Deep dives
The Impact of AI on the Economy
The economy is currently divided between the AI sector and non-AI sectors, with the former exhibiting significant growth. Over the past three years, capital expenditure (CapEx) in the AI sector has surged by around 80%, while investment in non-AI technology has lagged behind, growing at only 2% annually due to higher interest rates and other macroeconomic pressures. However, the trend is beginning to shift as economic conditions improve, leading to a reversal of headwinds faced by the non-AI technology market. As interest rates stabilize and AI applications start to gain traction across industries, many believe that this segment will experience a resurgence and accelerated growth.
Market Opportunities in 2025
The outlook for 2025 indicates a potential rebound in various sectors, particularly technology and cyclical industries, due to evolving economic conditions. Factors such as reshoring and a favorable interest rate environment are expected to drive economic growth, which could lead to an expansion beyond the tech-dominated Magnificent Seven. Software companies are highlighted as a key area of interest because they have faced significant challenges in recent years, making them well-positioned for recovery as market dynamics improve. As the economic landscape broadens, software is anticipated to be a critical player in realizing growth opportunities moving forward.
Mega cap tech stocks have powered the market higher in 2024. But are there new opportunities for tech investors beyond the 'Magnificent 7'? Sung Cho, a portfolio manager within Goldman Sachs Asset Management and co-head of the US equity team, joins Chris Hussey.