Guest Sarah C. M. Paine, Professor of History and Strategy at the Naval War College, discusses how continental vs maritime powers think, why the British Empire fell apart, lessons from WW2 and Cold War, friendly debate on Taiwan and Ukraine, and if the US is ready for a war with China. She also explains how to study history properly and why leaders keep making the same mistakes.
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Quick takeaways
Overextension can have positive consequences, as seen in the Japanese occupation of Manchuria and Taiwan.
Grand strategy requires the integration of all national power and coordination between military and civilian sectors.
Understanding historical contexts and unfamiliar perspectives is crucial for making accurate assessments and decisions in war.
Communist regimes excel at propaganda and information warfare, necessitating robust counter-strategies.
Recognizing primary enemies and strategically aligning can lead to successful alliances and victories.
Deep dives
The Impact of Overextension on Empires
The podcast discusses the impact of overextension on empires and the consequences of territorial conquests. It highlights examples such as the Japanese occupation of Manchuria and Taiwan, where the Japanese established infrastructure and education, resulting in industrialization and economic growth. The podcast also emphasizes the importance of understanding the other side's perspective and the dangers of half-court tennis in analyzing foreign policy.
The Significance of Grand Strategy
The podcast explores the concept of grand strategy and its importance in shaping national objectives. It explains that grand strategy involves the integration of all relevant instruments of national power towards achieving national goals. The podcast emphasizes the need for coordination and considers historical examples where the lack of coordination led to disastrous outcomes, such as Japan's focus on its military without coordinating with civilians, resulting in their downfall during World War II.
The Complexity of Wars and Unknown Unknowns
The podcast discusses the complexity of wars and the challenges of making accurate assessments and decisions. It explores the unknowns that leaders face and highlights the importance of understanding historical contexts and unfamiliar perspectives. The podcast also touches on the role of archives in uncovering unknown information and the need to avoid half-court tennis, where individuals only consider their own side of the story.
The Impact of Communist Regimes on Populations
The podcast examines the impact of communist regimes on populations and the ideological factors that contributed to their rise. It delves into the brutalities committed under these regimes and the disillusionment that ensued. The podcast also discusses the challenges of ending wars and the complexities of international relations during and after conflict.
Strategic ambiguity and Taiwan conflict
Strategic ambiguity regarding U.S. intervention in a Taiwan conflict allows for deterrence and prevents unilateral actions by Taiwan that could lead to a world war.
Nuclear war consequences
The possibility of nuclear war between the U.S. and China should be avoided at all costs due to catastrophic consequences.
Asymmetric warfare and military efficiency
Asymmetric warfare, such as the use of drones, has the potential to challenge expensive military equipment. The efficiency of the military is difficult to assess, but constant improvement and adaptation are necessary.
Communist propaganda and information warfare
Communist regimes have historically been skilled at propaganda and information warfare, using words to cultivate loyalty and undermine rivals. It is crucial for the U.S. to counter such strategies with its own robust information warfare campaigns.
Understanding Alliances and Primary Enemies
One of the main ideas discussed in the podcast is the importance of understanding alliance systems and primary enemies. The Axis powers, comprising Germany, Italy, and Japan, failed to coordinate effectively in World War II. However, it is crucial to focus not only on what one side did versus the other, but also on the alliances themselves. The Axis powers put their enemies, primarily Russia, China, Britain, and the United States, on 'death ground,' leading to the formation of a strong alliance against Germany. By recognizing the primary enemies and strategically aligning themselves, the Allied forces were able to defeat Germany and ultimately witness the emergence of the Cold War.
Continental versus Maritime Powers
Another significant topic discussed in the podcast is the distinction between continental and maritime powers. Germany, Russia, and China are primarily continental powers, focused on maximizing territory and defending themselves from land-based threats. On the other hand, Britain, the United States, and other maritime powers prioritize commerce and international trade, which contributes to their security. Maritime powers engage in a win-win approach, wherein economic prosperity is a security strategy. In contrast, continental powers often engage in negative-sum games, seeking to expand territory at the expense of economic growth. Understanding this distinction is crucial when analyzing conflicts and the strategic interests of different nations.
I learned so much from Sarah Paine, Professor of History and Strategy at the Naval War College.
We discuss:
- how continental vs maritime powers think and how this explains Xi & Putin's decisions
- how a war with China over Taiwan would shake out and whether it could go nuclear
- why the British Empire fell apart, why China went communist, how Hitler and Japan could have coordinated to win WW2, and whether Japanese occupation was good for Korea, Taiwan and Manchuria
- plus other lessons from WW2, Cold War, and Sino-Japanese War
- how to study history properly, and why leaders keep making the same mistakes
If you want to learn more, check out her books - they’re some of the best military history I’ve ever read.
