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Cathie Wood discusses various economic disconnects and observations, including fiscal and monetary policy, economic indicators, and innovation. Topics covered include inflation, interest rates, GDP vs. GDI growth, recession, bear steepening, quantitative tightening, impact on emerging markets, and the role of innovation in addressing challenges and driving productivity gains.
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- The podcast discusses the concept of a rolling recession, affecting sectors like housing and autos, with metrics like year-over-year basis showing a decline of 40-50%, indicating a recessionary state.
- The podcast highlights the discrepancy between GDP and GDI growth rates, supporting the rolling recession thesis, and emphasizes the importance of GDI as a simpler metric to measure, while also discussing deflationary forces associated with innovation, reflected in declining gold and copper prices.
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The Rolling Recession: A Persistent Downturn
The podcast discusses the concept of a rolling recession, which has been ongoing for the past 18 months. The recession started with two consecutive negative quarters of real GDP growth and has since affected various sectors, such as housing and autos. The housing market has experienced a decline of 40-50% in metrics like year-over-year basis, and auto sales are below par, indicating a recessionary state. Additionally, government gridlock and inventory drops are contributing to the rolling recession. While not a global crisis, the situation is worsened in the emerging markets, including China and Europe.
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