Astral Codex Ten Podcast Congrats To Polymarket, But I Still Think They Were Mispriced
Nov 28, 2024
Prediction markets had a remarkable performance during the recent election, demonstrating impressive accuracy and stability. The discussion centers on Polymarket's rise to fame, gaining significant public attention and potential customer loyalty. Insights into the reliability of prediction markets versus traditional methods surface, along with interesting theoretical scenarios. Despite the success, there's a critique on the mispricing of Trump shares, raising questions about market behavior and future implications for prediction markets.
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