Episode 470: Short Term Bonds, A Growth Plan For A Late Starter, A Birthday Wish And Portfolio Reviews As Of December 5, 2025

15 snips

Dec 7, 2025

This discussion dives into the impact of cash and short-term bonds on safe withdrawal rates. The hosts explore the flexibility of the Golden Butterfly allocation, emphasizing that it's a preference rather than a rigid rule. There's valuable advice for late starters on crafting a growth-focused financial plan. Humorous birthday wishes add a light-hearted touch, while insights into portfolio reviews reveal performance secrets and strategies for achieving reliable returns without risky stock picking.

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ADVICE

Trim Cash To Improve Withdrawal Rates

Reduce short-term bond/cash allocations toward ~10% to raise safe withdrawal rates.
Keep more stocks if you want higher long-term growth but trade off shallower drawdowns.

INSIGHT

Golden Butterfly Is A Preference

The Golden Butterfly is a preference, not a rule; allocations reflect sleep-and-preference trade-offs.
Diversification principle matters more than exact percentages when designing drawdown portfolios.

ADVICE

Don't Over-Hedge Short-Term Bonds

Don't over-engineer short-term bond choices; duration and low volatility matter most for cash-like buckets.
Use VTIP, VGSH, or money markets interchangeably if convenience or tax reasons drive the choice.

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In this episode we answer emails from Adam, Cha Cha, and TJ. We discuss how cash and short-term bonds affect safe withdrawal rates, why the Golden Butterfly’s allocation is a preference not a rule, and how to build a growth-first plan when you’re starting late. And we wish Happy Birthday to Mick the Mugga Mugga.

And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the eight sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.

Additional Links:

Father McKenna Center Donation Page: Donate - Father McKenna Center

Many Happy Returns Podcast Featuring Tyler: How to Pick Your Perfect Portfolio, with Tyler from Portfolio Charts

Video Summary of Recent Bronnie Ware Interview: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1XO1H7719LTel-WrwUABpMaAzdFk6-juv/view?usp=sharing

Catching Up To FI Podcast: Financial Independence - Catching up to FI

Excess Returns Podcast: Excess Returns Podcast | Excess Returns Podcasts - Helping Make You a Better Investor

Swedroe Factor Investing Book: Book Review: Your Complete Guide to Factor-Based Investing | CFA Institute Enterprising Investor

Breathless AI-Bot Summary:

Worried your portfolio is heavy on cash but light on purpose? We unpack the real trade-offs behind short-term bonds, money markets, and the Golden Butterfly’s famous “comfort cushion,” then show how a few precise tweaks can lift safe withdrawal rates without blowing up your sleep. Listener questions drive the heart of the episode: how much cash is too much, whether VTIP truly hedges better than VGSH, and why cash management rarely changes outcomes even though it feels reassuring.

From there we shift to a late-starter’s dilemma: chasing 8–10% average returns over a decade without gambling. We get practical about the only two ways to beat the market, why stock-picking “wins” often just mirror factor exposure, and how to use a simple, research-backed pairing—large-cap growth with small-cap value—to seek higher expected returns. We also cover when international tilts help, how currency drives comparisons more than people think, and where bonds, gold, and REITs fit as you move closer to financial independence.

Our take is direct and usable: minimize inert cash, diversify for shallower drawdowns, and reserve complexity for places that pay. Build growth while the gap to FI is wide, then add ballast on purpose as you near the goal. If you want a sturdier plan and a quieter mind, this conversation clears the noise and spotlights the levers that matter.

Enjoy the show? Follow, rate, and share it with a friend. Send your questions to Frank at RiskParityRadio.com, and if it helped, leave a quick review so more DIY investors can find it.

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