All Things Policy Deciphering the Grey Zone
Dec 1, 2025
Colonel Vikrant Shinde, a Research Fellow at the Takshashila Institution and former military officer, delves into the murky world of grey zone conflicts. He discusses how nations engage in subtle coercion and information warfare, blurring lines between peace and war. Vikrant presents a four-quadrant framework to analyze these tactics, contrasting India's challenges with Pakistan and China. He emphasizes the need for adaptive strategies, including AI and cross-sector collaboration, to combat these evolving threats effectively.
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Grey Zone As An Operational Space
- The grey zone is best understood as an operational space for perpetual contestation rather than a distinct form of warfare.
- This framing highlights use of diverse tools beyond traditional military doctrine and changes policy responses.
Selective Attributability Beats Absolute Denial
- Asymmetry, military exclusion, and non-attributability are not universal grey zone features according to Vikrant.
- He argues for selective attributability and acknowledges military instruments can be used without triggering full escalation.
Four-Quadrant Matrix For Full-Spectrum Conflict
- A four-quadrant matrix maps contestation across axes of war–peace and direct–indirect action.
- The matrix links regular warfare, irregular warfare, competition, and deterrence to show how grey zone tactics shift across domains.