117: What Makes a Great Macro Fund Manager? Meet Scott Bessent, Trump's Treasury Secretary
Oct 26, 2023
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Scott Bessent, former key player on the George Soros team and highly respected macro hedge fund manager, discusses key ingredients for being a macro manager. He shares insights on de-dollarisation, debt, commodities, Ukraine rebuild, AI, and fast-evolving markets in China and Japan. Scott also discusses risk, position sizing, and dealing with information overload.
Regime change is a crucial concept in macro investing and a good imagination is necessary for successful investments.
Risk management is vital in investing, as witnessed through the consequences of not managing risk appropriately.
Having good mentors and learning from experienced investors is important for success in the investment industry.
Deep dives
Investing compared to cards or backgammon
Investing is compared to playing cards or backgammon, where you don't know what the outcome will be. The speaker emphasizes the need for a good imagination in investing and highlights regime change as a key concept in macro investing.
The importance of risk management
The speaker shares a personal story about growing up with a father who was a boom-bust real estate investor. This experience taught the speaker the importance of risk management in investing, as they witnessed the consequences of not managing risk appropriately.
Choosing Yale for education
The speaker explains why they chose to attend Yale for their education. They highlight the medium-sized city of New Haven near New York, great reputation, and the South Carolina tradition at Yale as factors that influenced their decision.
Early experiences in the investment industry
The speaker shares their early experiences in the investment industry, including internships and working with notable figures like George Soros and Jim Rogers. They describe the valuable lessons they learned and the importance of having good mentors.
Observing and analyzing the world in global macro investing
The speaker provides an overview of global macro investing, highlighting the focus on observing and analyzing the world, markets, and different factors such as policy errors, political changes, and mispricings. They emphasize the need for imagination and paying attention to the opportunity set provided by the market.
Today’s guest is the new US Treasury Secretary, serving under Donald Trump. The role gives him immense responsibility for managing US obligations and finances, including circa. $7 trillion of annual US federal spending, the $35+ trillion fiscal debt pile and continued inflationary pressures on both US businesses and consumers.
Prior to this he was a key player on the George Soros's team, who in 1992 helped the Quantum Fund make $1bn, shorting sterling ahead of the UK’s withdrawal from the ERM. As Soros’s CIO, he was also dubbed ‘The Man Who Broke the Bank of Japan’ by the Wall Street Journal after making approximately $3.5bn on the Abenomics trade from 2012-2015.
Scott is widely acknowledged to be one of the world’s most highly respected macro hedge fund managers, and currently runs Key Square Capital Management. He has also taught financial history at Yale and is a prominent philanthropist.
In this episode, Scott explains the key ingredients in being a macro manager. He charts his journey, working with legendary investors such as Stan Druckenmiller and George Soros.
He opines on a range of key investment themes, including his thoughts on de-dollarisation, debt, commodities, the Ukraine rebuild, and AI. He also shares his analysis of the fast-evolving markets in both China and Japan.
Scott goes on to discuss risk, when and how he sizes positions, signposts that influence conviction, and dealing with information overload. A tour de force! Recorded in September 2023.