In Moscow's Shadows 192: What if Ukraine could join the EU in months, not years?
Mar 23, 2025
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What if Ukraine could join the EU in just months? This thought-provoking discussion highlights the complexities and implications of such a rapid integration. Expect insights into the ongoing conflict and the evolving challenges Ukraine faces in its path to membership. The focus shifts to three compelling books offering unique perspectives on Ukraine's situation. From political instability to resilience, the conversation unpacks the multifaceted journey of a nation striving for a brighter future amid turbulent times.
58:09
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Quick takeaways
The podcast explores the challenging prospect of fast-tracking Ukraine's EU membership by 2030, despite significant historical and political obstacles.
Corruption and the need for legislative reforms are highlighted as critical impediments for Ukraine's accession to the EU amidst ongoing conflict.
The necessity of security guarantees, including potential military commitments from the EU, is examined as vital for bolstering Ukraine against Russian aggression.
Deep dives
Accelerated EU Membership for Ukraine
The idea of fast-tracking Ukraine's accession to the European Union is explored, following a suggestion from the Lithuanian President that 2030 could be a target date. While this timeline is deemed unlikely, it invites consideration of how obstacles might be overcome for quicker EU integration. Historically, countries like Bulgaria, Romania, and Croatia took over a decade to achieve membership, highlighting the slow and complex nature of the process. Despite these challenges, there are indications that Ukraine is moving forward, with steps already being initiated for candidacy and accession negotiations.
Corruption and Legislative Challenges
Ukraine's ongoing issues with corruption and the need for legislative adjustments to align with EU standards are emphasized as critical challenges to membership. The podcast discusses the entrenched corruption that persists amid war and how it complicates Ukraine's aspirations. Comparisons are drawn between Ukraine's corruption scores and those of EU member states, suggesting that while Ukraine has issues to resolve, it does not stand alone in facing such challenges. The European Commission's adherence to strict membership criteria may hinder progress, even when political will exists on both sides.
Security Guarantees and NATO Focus
The discussion highlights the importance of security guarantees for Ukraine, emphasizing NATO membership as a critical deterrent against further Russian aggression. The potential role of the EU as a military structure is examined, particularly in light of Article 42 Clause 7 of the Treaty of Europe, which outlines obligations for member states to aid one another in times of armed aggression. There is skepticism regarding how seriously this clause could be enforced in practice, especially given historical hesitance among EU nations to commit to military action. The podcast speculates that an expansion of Ukraine’s ties to the EU could serve as an alternative security guarantee, fostering relations that might mitigate future conflicts.
Historical Context and Future Roads
The podcast reflects on the historical relationship between Ukraine and Russia, including the reasons behind Russia's current relaxed stance toward Ukraine's potential EU membership. It suggests that Moscow perceives Ukraine's EU aspirations as a non-threat, contrasting this with past conflicts over Ukraine's alignment. The analysis points to a complex web of historical grievances and evolving perceptions, indicating that Russia's current leadership may underestimate Ukraine's ability to become a significant player in Europe. The realities of regional dynamics and the impact of Ukraine's membership on European relations are projected as crucial factors in potential future developments.
Challenges of Integration and Costs
The prospect of Ukraine's membership in the EU brings forward significant financial concerns regarding the integration of one of Europe’s poorest countries, especially amid reconstruction following war. There is apprehension that existing EU member states may resist the financial implications of integrating Ukraine, particularly regarding agricultural policy and funding that would be necessary for uplift. The strain of aiding Ukraine’s inclusion while managing domestic financial pressures poses a dilemma for the EU, challenging the notion of solidarity within the union. Furthermore, there are fears that unrestrained migration post-membership could lead to workforce depletion in Ukraine, complicating recovery efforts.
Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda has suggested Ukraine should be allowed into the EU on 1 January 2030 (by which time the war will be over or frozen...). What if it could be in months not years? It won't happen, for all kinds of reasons, but let's entertain it as a 'what if?' thought experiment.
PS: I got my digits muddled: it's Article 42, clause 7 of the Treaty if Europe I ment, not 47(7).
In the second half, I look at three recent deeply-engaged eyewitness books on Ukraine:
· Battleground Ukraine by Adrian Karatnicky (Yale Up, 2024)
· Our Enemies Will Vanish by Yaroslav Trofimov (Michael Joseph 2024)
· I Will Show You How It Was by Illia Ponomarenko (Bloomsbury, 2024)
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
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