
Energy Evolution Explaining Germany's energy transition 'reality check'
Oct 28, 2025
Andreas Franke, an expert in electricity demand forecasting at S&P Global, and Henning Gloystein, a specialist in energy policy at Eurasia Group, tackle Germany's intricate energy challenges. They delve into the stark reality check on electricity demand forecasts and its implications for renewable energy targets. The discussion uncovers how high energy costs impact industry competitiveness and questions the feasibility of Germany's ambitious 2045 climate goals amid a shift towards gas reliance. They also warn that similar reassessments might be necessary across Europe.
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Demand Forecasts Are Being Rewritten
- Germany's monitoring report finds the 2030 electricity demand target (750 TWh) is likely 20% too high, revising forecasts to ~600–700 TWh.
- This lowers required renewable capacity and could reduce grid expansion and system costs previously planned.
Shift Support Toward Market-Based Contracts
- Phase out fixed rooftop solar feed-in tariffs and shift large projects to market- and system-friendly contracts like two-sided auctions.
- Fast-track auctions for new gas plants to align capacity with coal exit timelines and ensure supply stability.
Efficiency Could Offset Electrification Surge
- Electrification drivers (EVs, heating, data centres) will raise demand, but stronger-than-expected efficiency gains may offset growth.
- The net effect likely reduces midterm demand growth versus earlier projections.
