The David Lin Report Bitcoin Crash: How Low Will It Go? Analyst Reveals Bottom | Matthew Sigel
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Nov 22, 2025 Matthew Sigel, Head of Digital Assets Research at VanEck, dives deep into the tumultuous world of Bitcoin and its future. He explains how Bitcoin's underperformance this year relates to AI trade dominance and the pivot of miners from ASICs to AI GPUs. Sigel highlights intriguing on-chain data revealing that miners, not long-term holders, are primarily selling. He discusses the potential for a final correction before a rally and explores the macro forces behind the recent crypto sell-off. Sigel also introduces their On-Chain Economy ETF, NODE, emphasizing its innovative approach to market exposure.
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AI Pivot Is Pressuring Bitcoin
- Matthew Sigel links Bitcoin weakness to the AI trade and miners pivoting to GPU/AI compute.
- Miners sell BTC to fund expensive CapEx, creating downward pressure when AI demand or credit tightens.
Who Actually Sold Bitcoin
- On-chain data shows oldest Bitcoin holders increased holdings while mid-cycle (3–5 year) holders sold.
- This suggests miners and mid-cycle holders, not OG whales, drove recent selling.
Four‑Year Cycle: Reduced Amplitude
- Sigel still gives the four-year cycle “benefit of the doubt” but expects smaller amplitude.
- He models upside ~10x and downside roughly half prior peak-to-trough, pointing to support in the high $70ks.