Bonnie Glaser, Managing Director for the German Marshall Fund’s Indo-Pacific program and co-author of a pivotal book on U.S.-Taiwan relations, discusses the escalating tensions surrounding Taiwan. She highlights the shrinking space for dialogue with China and the evolving rhetoric from leaders like Xi Jinping. Glaser dives into Taiwan's defense strategy amidst dwindling trust in U.S. support and examines how recent global events have shifted transatlantic dynamics regarding Taiwan's security challenges. A thought-provoking analysis of the region’s future!
Bonnie Glaser emphasizes that Xi Jinping's cautious approach towards Taiwan is influenced by the costs of military actions observed in Ukraine.
The use of gray zone tactics by China aims to undermine Taiwan's confidence in its governance and external support, complicating the island's security calculations.
Deep dives
Bonnie Glaser's Journey in Asian Geopolitics
Bonnie Glaser's fascination with Asia began during her studies in Asian history, which included prominent nations like Japan and China. After graduating from Boston University, she spent time in Taiwan and engaged deeply with Chinese politics, experiencing firsthand the complexities of cross-strait relations. Her insights gained prominence while working alongside Kurt Campbell in the Pentagon, where her trips to Beijing and Taipei provided critical perspectives at a time when access was more open. Glaser notes a stark shift in the landscape today, stating that accessing reliable information from China has become significantly more challenging since the tightening of restrictions.
Xi Jinping's Intentions Towards Taiwan
Xi Jinping seeks some level of progress toward reunification with Taiwan, but achieving this goal by force is complicated by various factors. The ongoing situation in Ukraine has heightened Xi's awareness of the costs associated with military actions, leading to a more cautious approach. The Chinese leadership envisions political dialogue with Taiwan, contingent on accepting that Taiwan is part of China, yet this precondition poses a barrier for the current Taiwanese government. Glaser points out that Xi's expectations may have evolved over time, especially as he grapples with internal challenges such as economic difficulties and corruption within the PLA.
Gray Zone Tactics and Military Pressure on Taiwan
China's strategy towards Taiwan employs gray zone tactics that aim to undermine confidence in Taiwanese governance and US support without resorting to outright conflict. The military operations around Taiwan have amplified significantly, increasing the pressure on the Taiwanese people and their government. This strategy seeks to convince the Taiwanese populace that integration with the PRC would lead to a better future, reducing their belief in their government's capability to fend off aggression. The message aligns with a broader goal of deterring any moves towards formal independence by eroding Taiwan's confidence in external support.
The Role of International Dynamics in Taiwan's Future
The geopolitical landscape surrounding Taiwan is influencing how the United States and its allies perceive their commitments to Taiwan's defense. A bipartisan consensus exists in Washington to support Taiwan, though concerns linger regarding the implications of the Ukraine conflict on US engagement in Asia. Rising skepticism in Taiwan towards US willingness to intervene might impact the island's strategic calculations, necessitating stronger diplomatic communications and assurances from allies. Additionally, international dynamics, especially partnerships with Japan and Australia, are critical in shaping a unified front against potential Chinese aggression in the region.
Mike hosts Bonnie Glaser, Managing Director for the German Marshall Fund’s Indo-Pacific program, and co-author of the recent bookUS-Taiwan Relations: Will China’s Challenge Lead to a Crisis? (Brookings Press, April 2023) to discuss China, Taiwan and expectations for the near future.
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