In this podcast Mike and Rory share the theory behind how the NFP data release should be traded. The podcast investigates the details of what the NFP is and how it is typically announced. Rory mentions how the NFP is a leading indicator, however also explains that there are leading indicators that can be used for the NFP such as the initial jobless claims, PMI employment reports and more.
Mike mentions on the podcast what happens if there is a positive announcement, one that is higher than the expected. Mike tells us that when payrolls are above expectations and participating rates are higher, then we can expect to see growth in risk assets such as equities, Fixed income products and the USD will rally.
Rory shares his opinion on how a negative announcement can be a sign of a weakening economy the would require support that we could see equities and risk assets fall, Fixed income products gather strength and USD to drop.
Both Mike and Rory agree that they think on Friday, for Junes NFP number it will be higher than the consensus of 225k and could be in the region of 240k-260k. This would be a positive announcement and could see growth in risk assets like equities.